Monday, February 13, 2006

San Diego Mortgage and RE info

I want to take a moment and talk about some really good info that I think the San Diego market should be interested in. I'm sure many of you have seen the site that Rich Toscano has put together: www.piggington.com. Not only does Rich write write regular articles for the Voice of San Diego, but he has some excellent content on his website that monitors real estate in the San Diego area. After seeing the 'premium content' listed on his site for months and going "I'm not going to pay for that..." I decided to spend the price of a movie ticket or a drink at the bar and see what it was all about.

It is apparent that Rich not only had to pay DataQuick for access to it's data, but I'm sure it took quite a bit of time to do the analysis and excellent graphs that he puts together.

For the San Diego readers out there...how would you like to see how actual zip codes performed on a year over year basis? Not only that, but how would you like to see how every zip code ranked? Rich has put this data together, and he even did separate rankings for single family homes versus condos. He did not let the 'condo factor' affect the rankings of certain zip codes that are highly influenced by the condo market.

Aside from ranking and graphing all of the zip codes, he does a monthly track of the credit markets where he tracks and graphs how mortgage rates performed during the month. He also uses the DataQuick information to create several graphs that track every aspect of the San Diego market. Things like median home price, MLS inventories, sales volume, zip code increases and declines for SFRs and condos, and months of inventory at current sales pace among other things.

I know that I have received quite a few e-mails asking for various data that I didn't have at my fingertips. You would think some of the industry organizations would put this info together. They might put bits and pieces of it out there if it fits their agenda, but not in the same format each and every month as the way Rich does it. From what I can tell, Rich is not manipulating or spinning the data...there is no reason for him to do so. Like his website says "In God we Trust, Everybody Else Bring Data". Rich brings data...

If I were buying a house in San Diego in the next few months, I would definitely pay the $8 a month to get this info. This info, with tools like ziprealty.com and zillow.com will make you a very informed real estate shopper. Those 3 tools go a long way to add some transparency to an industry that is relatively 'closed' behind the 'Sandicor' doors. Ziprealty now lets you track price reductions and days on market. Zillow lets you track pricing for individual housing among other features.

I am not affiliated with Rich and I am not getting paid for this. I am just passing this info along. I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw in the 'premium content', and I know that many of the readers are in the San Diego area. As much as I wish I could share some of the data with you, I'm not going to give away the content he pays for and works hard to produce. I feel it is worth $8 a month...especially if you are in the San Diego market. If you don't think so, you can cancel anytime. Click here for more info.

The best I can do for you is point you towards this article that showed up in the San Diego Union Tribune. This article gives some basic data, as well as the stats for a few neighborhoods. The thing to take away is that prices of new homes are taking a dive that will impact the rest of the market.

"But, in the new-housing category, which included newly built homes as well as apartments converted to condos for sale, there was a $104,000 drop from $539,500 in December to $435,000 last month.

That dollar decline represented an all-time record change, based on DataQuick reports back to 1988; while the 19.4 percent decline was the second biggest after a 24 percent decline recorded in July 1997.

OOPS! Doesn’t look good for individuals that paid 540k for homes a few months ago. I’m guessing they can’t handle the 100k drop in prices as well as the builder can. Don’t forget that many of these people used jumbo I/O loans, option-ARM’s, neg-am’s, 80/20’s and other creative financing to get into their 550k “starter home”.

If you happen to be in Orange County, then you can check out this data (hopefully the link will work without having to login). Orange County is certainly not invincible either. It seems that every major subprime lender is headquartered there. There is no shortage of stated income, interest only, option-ARM, and combo loans in ‘The OC’.

Don't forget that there is a TON of activity going on in the forums. There are almost 100 topics, 600 posts, and over 160 registered users. There are lots of very informative people in the forums as well. After writing 70+ posts, I feel like I am beating a dead horse sometimes, so please let me know what you want to hear about. I know the FB stories are always popular, but as things have been slower, there haven't been as many 'good' stories to tell. Plus the fact that since things are slower, I'm taking this time to work on a 'plan B'...if you know what I mean.

Thanks for stopping by...and I look forward to the comments and feedback!
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I am going to keep making my posts over here, but most of the comments are happening at the new site. Go to...
www.housingbubblecasualty.com
or
www.anotherf@ckedborrower.com

...if you would like to see more comments and activity. Don't forgot to check out the activity in the FORUMS!

SoCalMtgGuy

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