Wednesday, December 21, 2005

The blame game...comments and ramblings

I have recieved several e-mails and comments where people wanted to know my opinion on a few things. Instead of replying to these various comments individually, I will just make a post and give my opinion on various items. Well, here goes...

I don't know how the new BK rules are going to pan out. I don't know if the lawyers are going to find loopholes and exploit the system or not. I don't know if lenders will keep giving 100% I/O loans to borrowers 1-day out of a BK either. I do think it will continue longer than most of us think is prudent or even possible.

I don't know what is going to happen when there are 10's of thousands of homes that are worth much less than the loans on them.

I would like to think the "investor" eats that loss without the government stepping in, but who knows. After all, the government decided to pay for New Orleans homes that did not have flood insurance...what will stop them for doing the same if there is an earthquake in California? Will they pay for the homes where the homeowner decided not to get earthquake insurance? By following the same train of thought...Will the government step in to help people that are upside down on their mortgages?

I sure hope not...but who really knows. It isn't their place to, but history shows otherwise. If enough people are "hurt" by the housing bubble, can you see the politicains pandering to these people for votes as they offer a 'taxpayer' assisted solution to the great mortgage 'crisis' of 2007?? I sure can.

People ask me whose fault I think it is...Greenspan, Bush, media, brokers, realtors, etc. I don't think you can blame any one person for anything this large in scope. Just like I don't think Clinton had much to do with the stock bubble, I don't think Bush had much to do with the RE bubble. Both bubbles are/were fueled by greed and people chasing "easy money". I don't want to make this a political argument....just a mathematical one.

People were buying whatever.com at $200 becaue there was a greater fool they could sell it to at $300. People were buying 1 bedroom condos for $450,000 because there is (hopefully) a greater fool a $600,000. Clinton didn't force people to buy the stocks, and Bush/Greenspan never forced a hand at the doc signing table. Yes, Bush wanted people to own homes, but he sure didn't say to do it with a stated neg-am if that is the only way you can afford it. I'd like to poll borrowers on "why they bought their property". Somehow, I don't think "cause Bush wanted me too" will fall in the top 10. They were not buying a house because of presidentail recommendations. They were buying a house to live in, and/or as the next great asset class that will provide for a retirement with little to no real work. Why keep working a 40k a year job, when you can buy a condo in Vegas, and make twice that much in 6 months of doing nothing???

Midnight infomercials on daytrading stocks as the "road to riches" were replaced with no-money-down property flipping infomercials as the "road to riches". Whose fault is that?? Go to Border's Books or other big book stores. Most will have a special section dedicated to "real estate investing" and it is full of property flipping and "no-money-down" books to read. Again, whose fault is that?!?!?

The media had "skyrocking" .com stocks on the cover of every magazine...just as they had skyrocking property values this time around. So whose fault is that you ask? I say it is the fault of millions of individuals chasing easy money. Nothing wrong with that, but we all know that there is NO easy money in the long term. The irrational behavior becomes euphoric as "everybody" is getting rich. The mentality becomes, "I want to be rich too, so I had better do what they are doing". Forget math...it's different this time!! ...yeah right.

Sure, interest rates and lending standards helped add fuel to the fire, but you cannot blame that on any ONE person, thing, or entity.

If INDIVIDUALS did their own research, crunched the numbers for themselves, they would have seen BOTH of these bubbles clear as day. People assume that because some financial analyst, broker, realtor, media type, or other person "in the know" says it's different this time, that it is. They see that their neighbor made $200k flipping some properties, so it must mean they can do it as well. Yes, those things happened. People made money trading stocks and flipping houses...but the big variable is WHEN did they get in?!?!?

Buying Cisco in 2000 was a different purchase than in 1994. Just as buying condo conversions for $400k is different than buying larger $400k homes back in 1999. Just like the small print on every mutual fund add says "past performance is no guarantee of future results" the same applies to real estate investments as well...even though it isn't written anywhere. At least in the "stock-jockey" profession, anybody with a Series-7 is extremely careful about NOT "promising" or "guaranteeing" future results. In the loan/RE business, it is just standard practice to tell people that RE goes up, and that people WILL have the equity needed to refi when the time comes. People use 100% I/O loans as part of a financial plan to "get out of debt". How you ask? Well, that's easy, buy a property with no money down, come back in 8-12 months and pull out the cash you need to get out of debt...duh!!! I bet you are wondering why YOU didn't think of that "foolproof"plan.

See, that is the problem. People see the completely irrational happen...and think that is the norm. As more and more people see this...it BECOMES the norm....until it reaches a point where even the "greater fool"...isn't.

Looking back, everybody now sees that stocks trading at 180 times future earnings is NOT right...but it sure made sense at the time. As much as people belived "it WAS different this time", by the end of 2000, most realized it wasn't.

I think people will look back a few years from now, and wonder why they thought a $3500 a month I/O payment on a piece of property they could only rent for $1600 a month was a "good deal".

P/E ratios are one of the best ways to value a stock, just as rental income is one of the best ways to value a property. When either of those get out of whack, you will have problems. Just because things have been able to stay out-of-whack for years, doesn't necessairly mean it is a permanent condition.

Again, I just hope the government stays OUT of the equation. Just because the masses are irresponsible financially, does not mean they should be bailed out by the taxpayers. Individuals should be left to suffer the consequences of their actions. I know a lot of people could be ruined for a long time, but that is a better solution than setting a new precedent of using tax dollars to bail out individuals that made poor investments.

I look forward to the comments...

SoCalMtgGuy

84 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden. At least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst. We're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime.

12/21/2005 4:11 PM  
Anonymous stanislau said...

Good blog, mtge guy,

It probably doesn't pay to spend a lot of time discerning responsibility for this mess. I think it was made possible by the ultra low interest rates which were made possible by the Fed's campaign to smother inflation expectations. Nonetheless, this is a serious problem and when the system begins to unravel, the Fed will be there with its checkbook rendering support. It took well over 10 years for the Japanese property bubble to work itself out and forecasting a bottom on this one is almost impossible. If we have a sudden, major move in interest rates, it could come in 6 months. Otherwise, it could take years.

IMO a very common investment mistake is to continue to focus on the previous bubble for returns long after its peak has past. Following the tech bubble collapse of 2000, many continue to await its rebirth and the next run. Too bad, real estate was the next mania. Following the peak in real estate, some gains are possible during the next expansion but we won't see a real estate market like this for many years, IMO.

Please share thoughts on these views.

12/21/2005 4:54 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Staninlau,

The ultra low rates are part of it, but if you compute the value of property that can be bought with lower rates, it doesn't account for the rise in prices (see the 40year mortgage post below on the blog...lots of numbers in there)

I agree that this thing could take 10 years to bottom out...but like you said, too many variables right now, and nobody knows.

I also agree that people look for these "booms" to take off again. People are waiting until spring for RE to boom again. I don't think it is coming.

I have also heard people say they are going to put money back in the stock market as it looks like it is going to "boom" again.

Instant gratification doesn't seem to be fast enough for most American's now days. Buy it NOW, pay later. Trade a stock, flip a property, be set for life. Congrats to the people that DID make it, but I don't think it is a solid long term plan for the masses.

There is NO easy money in the long term, and I don't think there ever will be. There will be mania's, but they will be followed by busts...all you can do is hope that people will learn. AND/OR use logic to not get in the situation in the first place.

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 5:17 PM  
Blogger Chip said...

RE using taxpayer money to bail out the screwups, "It isn't their place to, but history shows otherwise."

You're being polite. It's MY tax money. I worked for it, I paid it at the point of a gun, and if it is given to these people I will have to pay even more to take its place. I do not agree to one penny of my taxes going for this purpose. If people want socialism, let them go to Canada.

12/21/2005 5:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You hit the nail on the head.

Great Blog! Too bad more people didn't read it. They would have saved their financial A$$es from getting nailed by the impending crash.

12/21/2005 5:31 PM  
Anonymous Professor said...

I am of the opinion that it has turned. Does that mean there will be a rapid decline? I suspect not as rapid as many here believe. That is in part a result of stubborn real property owners who will express an unwillingness to recognize their losses by not lowering their asking prices to reasonable levels given market conditions.

Does that mean real properties won't go down to reasonable levels of affordability? No. It simply means that it will take more time. I'm thinking we are looking at 2009-10 before we reach the bottom. Good news in all of this is it will be a somewhat controlled slide, and not likely involve government intervention beyond perhaps the creation of a Resolution Trust Corporation like entity to take over the responsibility of failed lenders, servicing non-performing assets that become government owned loans and properties.

I would hope that the events of the next few years will serve as a “wake up call” for those misguided individuals who think that there isn’t a downside to investing in real estate. However, I’m convinced that most of us suffer from memory loss and few will remember the disasters associated with this business downturn.

12/21/2005 5:31 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Chip,

I completely agree with you. Until more people get that burning feeling inside that the governemnt is taking their hard earned money with the 'point of a gun', and wasting it, nothing will change.

I want my arguments to be validated with MATH and logic. I wish government would actually crunch the numbers are see HOW we are going to pay for things, instead of just how it FEELS.

Yes, it is "nice" to pay for all of the homes that got flooded out in New Orleans that didn't have flood insurance, but WHO and HOW are we going to pay for that?!?!?

Is it right to take the tax dollars of somebody who PAID for their insurance, and use those dollars to pay for somebody who didn't??

I don't think the government should take money from people that CAN afford their homes, to help out those that CAN'T.

You have the freedom to make good decisions and reap the rewards, and you have the freedom to make bad decisions and reap the consequences.

What am I missing??

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 5:51 PM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

Great blog.
BLAME
I think the bubble started with easy lending, and has been fueled by that. Imagine if the lender required 20% down - then buyers could only afford 2/3 of the median price. Lenders used to carry their loans, now they sell them to hedge funds. So the mortgage products have fueled this. And the bubble mania kept it going. I constantly ask the investors whose rentals I view why they don't sell - they think real estate is slowing down some but will only go up because people need a place to live, and because real estate can only go up.

The slide has started. I spoke w/ my realtor today in San Diego, and he said each day the MLS rate reduction sheet prints out, with hundreds of reductions. He just sold a house in a nearby nice subdivision, listed at $725K, and the offer was $649K and the sellers took it. His comment to me was the rest of the subdivision will be mad at him for bringing down the value of everyone's homes. He had a condo listing which should have been $529K, but the seller insisted on listing it for $570K and they agreed finally on $550K. The condo will sit for a long time and then go through the inevitable price reductions. He told me that buyers are coming in with offers tens of thousands below listing price. Sellers' reluctance to accept the slide has started is only prolonging the agony, as they chase prices down, i.e. they reduce but not enough and the cycle continues as each reduction only brings them to where they should have been with the prior reduction.

I've read and heard many stories of people waiting until January to RELIST or list their properties. They are waiting for the hot spring selling season. We will see a glut of homes, and that will further depress prices. Again, a glut of homes in January, too much inventory, higher interest rates. Refis have already slowed. The home ATM is drying up and the economy will slow down as the consumer, who has propped it up, will run out of easy money.

My husband and I met with the escrow officer yesterday to sign our seller papers, and she said it has been very slow lately, although December was a little busier.

ARMs readjusting will force sales, higher mortgage rates will reduce prices and reduce refinancing, and the economy will suffer. 10 - 20% drop in 2006, 20 - 30% drop in 2007, and the bottom by 2008. It will be 12 years to the next peak, if history repeats itself. See htt://www.piggington.com for graphs of SD historical RE prices.

12/21/2005 6:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Government f@cked the taxpayer during the Savings and Loan scandel so I suspect the taxpayers will get a good f@cking when the current real estate bubble deflates. We will probably get more inflation, more taxes and a lower valuation on the US dollar relative to other currencies.

The sad thing is that citizens will then turn around and vote for more of the same.

The question is how to protect oneself from all this. Perhaps there is a way to make some money from this braindamage.

12/21/2005 6:23 PM  
Blogger Lou Minatti said...

No comment except to say I couldn't have said it better.

12/21/2005 7:20 PM  
Blogger boulder bo said...

"No comment except to say I couldn't have said it better."

ditto,

you and i have been of the same mindset on this thing for awhile. a market is only what people believe it is and it works the same on the way down. good work.

12/21/2005 7:27 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Thanks Lou and Boulder Bo!

It's good to have regular readers/posters like yourselves.

Maybe people will learn there is no free lunch once this housing bubble runs it's course. Sure, lots of people made money, but many more are going to watch paper-gains evaporate before their eyes.

Nobody wants to buy low, sell high anymore...they want to buy low and sell HIGHEST!

Oh well...they will learn as they watch their profits disappear. There are no "stop-loss" orders on housing.

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 7:39 PM  
Blogger hs said...

Reading this board is an amazing, and I am learning a lot from your guys. It seems price is going down now, but is this just seasonal or the trend for the future?(I guess nobody has crystal balls, but just need some suggestions.)

According to the 4 houses i was interested in buying at scripps ranch area,(I haven't bought any of them so far.)They all dropped off their prices.
1.on wexford st. first listing price was:$529k--549k in Oct. changed to 499k in Nov.(sold)
2.on Ivy hill Dr. first listing price was 519k--549k in August
changed to 509k--539k in Nov. Still on the market
3.on Ivy Hill 569k--599k in August
changed to 549.9k--569.9k in Dec.Still on the market
4.on Caminito Dulce first listing price was 549k--579k in Sept.
changed to 539k--549k in Dec. Still on the market
We need to settle down for our young daughter.
I am debating if I should buy now or wait. Any suggestion is welcome.
Thanks!
Happy holiday to you all.

12/21/2005 7:55 PM  
Blogger SiliconValley Renter said...

Great blog, SoCal. Stumbled upon it a few days ago.

I almost became a FB this summer when my mortgage broker tried to get me into a I/O with 100% financing, even though I told him I wanted to put 10% down. "You do NOT want to put money down, equity has no rate of return and is therefore of no financial benefit." Hmmm, never heard that one before...but then again he's the "expert".

I am still amazed how all of my family and friends continue to tell me that I have to buy or I'll never be able to afford a place. They tell me I just have to sacrifice and start with a small condo or townhouse, then I can move up to a larger place next year with the profit I'll make on the sale.

Well, I have a large dog and pay $2K for a 4 bedroom home in a nice area...and can still put about $1K/month into savings (i.e. future down payment). So I tell them I simply can't see myself stepping down to a crappy 2BR condo with shared walls and no real yard for my dog for almost twice as much money!

Yes I know, I've gotten too "comfortable" in my month-to-month rental as everyone says. But I figure as long as I can put money away every month, I have NO problem waiting this thing out another year or two.

12/21/2005 8:02 PM  
Blogger Tyler Durden said...

If people want socialism, let them go to Canada.

I take exception to that comment. It has nothing to do in this discussion. We'll see wether the US or Canada gets hit harder if the bubble burst.

Being able to go to the hospital without blowing out your life saving is not such a bad thing as your right wing makes it out to be.

12/21/2005 8:12 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Siliconvalley renter...

You are doing the right thing. Paying 2k for a 4 bedroom home is great...and you are saving $1000 a month at least.

If you were to get an 100% I/O loan on a 400k condo at 7% (realistic ballpark rate), you would be paying about 3k a month with taxes and HOA.

Yes, you are "renting" right now, but you have space, freedom, and flexibility that most of these owners do not. See how their tune changes as they see thier property values slipping lower, and their ARM payments getting higher.

YOU will have money in the bank, and many of them will not.

12/21/2005 8:18 PM  
Blogger bottomfeeder1 said...

tyler the canadian bafoon we have better health care and if we go down u go with us if we stop buying lumber booze and your cash crop marijuana u go bust with us.you are socialist pigs who harbor terrorists get a life.

12/21/2005 8:28 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Let's try to keep it housing related or related to the government response to housing.

There are lots of other places to debate politics...

Thanks!

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 8:46 PM  
Anonymous bacchus said...

bottomfeeder: Funny comment but please do a google search on "run-on sentence".

It is true that Canadian health care is a joke (a 3-hour wait for a blood test?), but personally I prefer home rememdies to paying a 25-year-old doctor $950 to tell me I can avert my cat allergies by staying away from cats. Gee, never thought of that one!

But back to RE, does Canada have similar loan practices as the US? i.e. the use of exotic, I/O, option ARM, etc... just curious as I don't hear much about it.

12/21/2005 8:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re Reductions comments from mtnrunner -- it would be great if there was a insider like socal that could post periodic summaries of the MLS reductions sheets for SD, OC, LA -- it would be great if we could see those weekly in the Times, the Register, and the Union Tribune. But no... that would really expose the bubble and cause a mass uproar!!


Re Bailouts - hope the gov does not intervene other than manipulating interest rates. I would also hate to see my taxed dollars go to helping some $100K+ salary guy "maintain" his lifestyle when he can no longer afford his payment on the 800K home when his ARM adjusts (or some $40K guy who has irresponsibly gotten in over his head on a $300K condo going "stated") -- where is the justice for those of us that looked at the numbers and said, "you know what, this is not a financial sound decision"... how's that for "taxation without representation" -- essentially they would representing only FB homeowners.

12/21/2005 8:55 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

anon 8:55

Check this blog for MLS updates on various bubble markets:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 9:02 PM  
Blogger Tyler Durden said...

Bottomfeeder 1 wrote:
tyler the canadian bafoon we have better health care and if we go down u go with us if we stop buying lumber booze and your cash crop marijuana u go bust with us.you are socialist pigs who harbor terrorists get a life.

You just keep believing your media overlords all you like my little redneck friend. I've broken an ankle snowboarding, gotten a real bad-ass condition from a trip to Alabama, and taken two high-speed spills cycling in the last five years. Always had service within an hour, patched up and good to go. You can go get a blood test done for very little money in less then 15 minutes at many small clinics.

American buy canadian lumber for one reason: it's cheaper to have it delivered down to you then to buy from american lumber producers. An illegal tarif was imposed to negate the price advantage. Same for steel.

Now, please stop taking pot shots at canadians and concentrate on the subject of the blog. We're doing just fine up here, talking dirt about us won't change it.

12/21/2005 9:12 PM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

Bubble tracker:
Wow! # of listings are creeping up while the # of sales creeps down, so the percentage of listings sold is really going down! Notice also that the inventory has dropped in the last few weeks, which is substantiating what I've been seeing and hearing: people aren't getting the prices they want, and are taking their homes off the market or letting the listings expire, waiting for the "hot spring buying season" which is supposed to start in the winter, January to be exact. I expect about 20,000 listings by mid January, and sales will continue to go down and so will prices.
Is there anyplace we can see the MLS price reductions, or get an insider realtor's view?
Also, can you bloggers tell us if any of you have sold your house recently, or are you all long-time renters? SoCalMtgGuy, are you a renter too?

12/21/2005 10:07 PM  
Blogger Sensible Lender said...

Loosening standards on 100% financing at this point is like throwing gasoline on the fire. Unbelievable.

12/21/2005 10:22 PM  
Blogger leewhee said...

Bill Bonner, of Daily Reckoning fame, has a favorite line he likes to use: "Things that are extremely out-of-whack eventually work their way back into whack."

12/21/2005 10:23 PM  
Blogger foreclose_me said...

I've got a blog idea for the mtg guy.

Mortgage fiends are looking at a serious problem with the Katrina situation. They calculated a certain number of foreclosures in an area, but never enough simultaneously to literally 'become' the market.

So the question is, what are the fiends looking at in terms of loss from either forebearance, or foreclosure?

And is it not a possible insight into what they will face when mass foreclosures begin hitting the entire United States?

Netherlands banks supposedly go real easy in their current bubble-bust, but will that option be available in the US under our banking rules and considering who owns our MBS?

12/21/2005 10:39 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

mtnrunner2

Yup, I am a renter. I used to beat myself up over it, but now I do it happily. Once I got into the mortgage industry, I got to see 1st hand how people were "affording" these houses. For the longest time I was dumbfounded and felt "poor" because I didn't make enough money to afford a house or condo. Little did I know that I made more money than the people that WERE buying many of the properties out there. I thought everybody was putting money down and doing fixed rate mortgages...boy was I wrong.

I would have to pay at least 2-3 times my rent to "own" the place I am in with an I/O mortgage.

I make more money than most (per the Ca statistics), but I don't feel comfortable taking on $500k of debt with an I/O or neg am loan to own a condo.

I'm not fooled by the "just get in", and RE only goes up mantra that sooo many people have bought into in SoCal.

If I'm wrong, so be it...I have quite a bit of money in savings, and the freedom and flexibility to do what I want, when I want.

I don't think appreciation will outpace what I'm saving every month the next year or so, so I choose to wait. I think the upside to buying now is no where NEAR the potential downside of buying right now.

SoCalMtgGuy

12/21/2005 10:45 PM  
Blogger Tom said...

SiliconValley Renter said...
Great blog, SoCal. Stumbled upon it a few days ago.

I almost became a FB this summer when my mortgage broker tried to get me into a I/O with 100% financing, even though I told him I wanted to put 10% down. "You do NOT want to put money down, equity has no rate of return and is therefore of no financial benefit." Hmmm, never heard that one before...but then again he's the "expert".


Either your person is an idiot and I feel bad for the people he/she sells homes too. Or They are trying to maximize the loan to give them the fattest commission possible.

12/21/2005 11:02 PM  
Blogger WArenter said...

mtnrunner2-
We used to be homeowners, we sold because of a move in 2003 (our house had doubled in value). We decided not to buy once we moved because the market just didn't make sense. Then we nearly bought last summer, but again the numbers never made sense. We had the 20% down, and over the median income, but couldn't figure out who we could sell to if we ever needed to - especially if interest rates ever left their all time lows. I just could not figure out how people were affording homes until I found Ben's blog (and then this one). I figured they were trading up, or had money from family. Something that we didn't have. Now I know that in many cases that something is an exotic loan!! We don't feel like laying our cash down in a market driven by this.

12/21/2005 11:16 PM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/national_housing.jsp

Interesting graphs - note that the NAR graphs dated 10/05 only show data through 8/05. Hmmm... you mean we shouldn't notice that inventory is way up while sales are way down?
Check this out:http://rereport.com/sdc/charts/ivs.gif
Another report which stops in summer. This report shows seasonal inventory and sales since 01/99, and we are way off the charts now. I guess it's too worrisome to update the chart. FYI: our inventory is at 15095 in SD as of 12/20/05, way off the charts!!!

12/21/2005 11:18 PM  
Anonymous scrunchie said...

I have been posting sales and inventory stats for almost a year now for the Cocoa Beach Florida market. We are at extreme levels at present (high inventory and slooooow sales)and the mood is one of complete denial. Everyone expects it to be business as usual come Jan. Our main disaster will be pre-construction condos. We have a crop incubating right now that will explode in 2006. You can follow the trend of the numbers and my comments at http://southcocoabeach.com/

12/22/2005 3:06 AM  
Blogger grim said...

For anyone in the Northern NJ area, I routinely post a handful of weekly price reduced listings as well as lowballed sales on my blog. It's been a big hit. I don't post up anything other than MLS number and the prices, but it's easy enough to go to realtor.com and pull up the listing to take a look.

You couldn't post the entire price change sheets up for large areas, North Jersey is usually around 300-400 listings a week. Plus, I believe it is a violation of most MLS use terms. Unless you had some other way to gather the data, the agent/broker providing you that data could get into some trouble (especially if you are posting addresses or other personal info).

Grim
Northern NJ Real Estate Bubble

12/22/2005 4:31 AM  
Blogger Idaho_Spud said...

Wow. These comments go all over the place! First off, aplogies to Tyler Durden for the uber-patriotism and the uncalled-for digs at our much better-mannered neighbors to the north.

Second, agreed no bailouts! When it comes to personal finances, these people need to have some personal accountability. There's always a time to pay for living beyond your means. You can save for it or you can pay later, and these people already made their choice.

Thirdly thanks to mtnrunner2 for the chart and the latest SD home inventory number. Yep, that's off the chart alright. In fact if it were plotted to scale it would be off the monitor and up to my software shelf :)

12/22/2005 6:20 AM  
Anonymous Moman said...

The blame game will be at a full boil by this time next year.

What is the incentive to be cautious if the gov't bails people out time after time? I live in FL. People here have their million dollar beach homes washed away every couple years by a hurricane. It's practically impossible to get private insurance for those properties. So the state subsidizes the property insurance and FEMA pays to rebuild the house. It seems to me if you desire and can afford to live on the overpriced beach you should be able to insure it.

I suspect the gov't will bail out people who are in way over their heads either by artifically stimulating the market or providing tax incentives that feed the deficit and prolong/postpone the agony.

The first sign of a bubble pop is denial (we are seeing this now). Then comes acceptance (people will acknowledge that they can't use their home as an ATM) then panic (must sell because I can't afford my home).

The one thing that can be blamed for the bubble is the rampant consumerism that is destorying our lifestyle. It has become a game of sorts to see who can have the newest and nicest stuff and make the most money on houses. The flipping tv show is a perfect example. People tend to believe buying houses is a short-term investment and move every year or two. Whatever happened to the day when a house was seen as a place to live and be part of a community? I don't want to be part of a community full of transients where every other house is for sale each year. Consumerism is NOT healthy for our economy, lifestyles, or communities.

We're digging our own grave.

12/22/2005 7:06 AM  
Blogger Lou Minatti said...

We'll see wether the US or Canada gets hit harder if the bubble burst.

I assume Canada is infected with bubble pockets much the same as the US. I know that Vancouver is grossly overpriced. What about the Maritimes? What about Montreal? Winnipeg? Edmonton? AFAIK, the Canadian bubble is mostly confined to Vancouver and Toronto. (Which, unfortunately, account for a large proportion of the Canadian population!)

These boils on our countries need to be lanced before they spread their infection any further. Draining the abcesses of the infectious speculative pus is the only cure.

(How's THAT for a bad analogy?)

12/22/2005 8:08 AM  
Blogger novasold said...

Thanks for this blog SoCal. It has explained many things that I have been observing in NoVa but couldn't substantiate.

I lived in a townhouse in Loudoun County until last month when I closed on the sale. I currently rent in Fairfax County now.

I lived in a lower priced area after moving here from NYC in 2000. The majority of people who bought in my NoVa neighborhood will fully acknowledge that they bought knowing they couldn't afford the mortgage on their own. Most rent out their basements to day laborers to make the mortgage payments. Most of these people are very hardworking and community minded people. One told me her realtor proposed she buy in this fashion b/c the house would appreciate to such a level that she would be able to sell in a couple of years with a hefty profit. The biggest problem in this type of community is that it also attracts the bad apples, say 1 or 2%, who rent the basement apartments. The entire situation was very disheartening to see that townhouse community deteriorate.

The other thing you notice in this community is all of the nice, brand-new, shiny SUVs purchased with home/ATM cash.

Reading your blog confirmed for me what I figured had to be true. Lending standards had loosened. I got put through the mill to get my first home loan in 2001 and had saved for 15 years to have the downpayment to make it happen. I can understand the motivation of people who bought under loosened standards, esp. if brokers and REAs were promising the moon.

I wonder what will happen to neighborhoods like these when the bubble bursts? Where will these people go?

12/22/2005 9:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NovaSold

They will be renting from the banks that forclose on them.

12/22/2005 9:39 AM  
Anonymous drattom said...

What about the Maritimes? What about Montreal? Winnipeg? Edmonton?

I live in Montreal and there is no bubble here, we are probably on top of a normal cycle but, there is no insanity. Prices doubled since 2000 but, they were falling in the previous decade. Average price in 2000 were close to the annual household average wage so even with 100% raise in 5 years, it's still affordable. I never heard about anybody flipping, owning 2 houses, people who buy a house or a condo live in it.

If there is a bubble in Quebec, it's close to ski stations(Tremblant, Bromont, St-Sauveur) where Americans and local rich baby boomers are buying luxury condos as vacation home.

There is no exotic mortgage in Canada, ARM are commons but, there is option ARMs, IOs. You can't have an heloc for more than 75%.

I think another difference is that interest are not tax deductible so, we see interest payment as a spending and not as a way to maximize our tax return.

What is dangerous in Eastern Canada, is that our economy is dependant on american consumer so, we will be hit badly as a side effect. This will be a real shock, there is almost nobody that are aware of the US bubble.

12/22/2005 10:07 AM  
Blogger ocbroker said...

SoCalMtgGuy, you could not have explained it better, this is what I ahve been trying to tell my Bozzo friends here in OC for months actually coupleyears now. Like you said the problem is people here and myself see it for what it is, but it just kept going blinding the greater fool, and now they are set in this will keep climbing mode.

p.s. anyone see the T Bills today, I thinks its trying to tell ya something, recession is a coming and hte Feds Bloody well know it.

12/22/2005 10:23 AM  
Anonymous Smed said...

Looks like the government is finally "waking up" and beginning to fully realize the risk of mass amounts of FBs.

This is from Patrick's blog:
FDIC Warns of Risky Mortgages
http://washingtontimes.com/business/20051221-120022-2742r.htm

12/22/2005 10:30 AM  
Blogger moonvalley said...

The number of people filing for bankruptcy or insolvency in England and Wales rose 46% from 2004 to 2005 to a record, according to Britain's Department of Trade and Industry. The average Briton has $5,188 in credit card debt, according to a December survey by Datamonitor. In the USA, the average debt per household is $9,312, according to CardWeb.com

Analysts say Britons' reliance on credit cards arose in recent years from a strong economy combined with low interest rates and easy availability of credit. Indirectly, the high cost of living, especially in London, also has been a factor, says Michael Penn, an economist with Merrill Lynch.
In recent months, the British economy has started to show signs of stagnancy: Interest rates are rising, adjustable-rate mortgage payments are increasing, consumer confidence is down, and retailers are reporting a disappointing holiday season, Penn says.

This story from one of the frothiest spots on the planet struck me this morning. The Brits have just rolled over and are beginning too wake up after taking the Debt Pig to bed. Guess it looked pretty good last night before last call. Meanwhile over here we're still snoozing onthe sofa with that little drool spot. Considering the exchange rate, their debt is probably pretty close to the amount owed by the average American. Wonder what their BK laws are like?

12/22/2005 10:46 AM  
Anonymous ff2017 said...

I believe most of the problems can be placed on the feet of the Fed. By lowering interest rates and reliquidfying the moneytary system after 9/11 they basically forced people to invest/speculate. With interest rates at ~1% and published headline inflation at 2-3% (yeah right), leaving money in the bank essentially meant you were losing purchasing power and compounded to boot.

As far as how we're going to get out of this impending mess. We'll have "Helicopter Ben." Once the cracks start showing, he'll start cutting rates and printing money like no tomorrow. The value of the dollar will plunge so it'll be easier to pay off a $500k loan when the value of the new dollar you're using to pay off the loan isn't worth as much.

As for the loans, much of the loans have been securitized, repackaged and sold off to Fannie and Freddie who in turned issued debt purchased by pension funds. So if the loans are in doubt, the government will have to bail out fannie and freddie's loan portfolio. So essentially, Savings and Loan Crisis Part Deux, just much worse.

12/22/2005 11:16 AM  
Anonymous Ferromancer said...

Anon @ 6:23
"The question is how to protect oneself from all this. Perhaps there is a way to make some money from this braindamage."

1) Borrow 1 million $US with a negative amortizing option-ARM loan.
2) Buy 1 milliion worth of gold and silver ingots
3) Put the bullion in a safety deposit box in Switzerland
4) Wait for the US gummint to bail out your defaulted loan
5) PROFIT!!!!!!

12/22/2005 11:24 AM  
Blogger betamax said...

What is dangerous in Eastern Canada, is that our economy is dependant on american consumer so, we will be hit badly as a side effect. This will be a real shock, there is almost nobody that are aware of the US bubble.

Same in western Canada - people are either unaware, or they smugly imagine that what happens in the US will not affect us in Canada.

Despite the fact that the US is our single majority trading partner, receiving 70% of our exports, some imagine that we can sell our resources to the Chinese instead; however, when US consumers stop buying products from China made from those rocks and trees, the Chinese will stop buying from us in turn.

As for the comment about 'socialist Canada' above, I thought it was pretty funny and took no offense. One of the few identifiably Canadian characteristics is the ability to laugh at ourselves...apparently tyler durden never got that memo.

As for our medical system, it is neither panacea nor hobgoblin but rather functions at an inconsistent variance between those two poles.

12/22/2005 11:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Ferromancer,

I thought about the possibility of buying a large house and then leveraging it to the hilt with a fixed rate mortgage. If government inflates you win. If government does not inflate simply send the keys back to the bank. If you have enough other assets it doesn't matter if your credit rating is hurt. The only issue is to make sure that the loan is only secured by the house - i.e. the lender cannot come after your other assets. This seems to me to be a way of joining the "heads we win, tails the taxpayer loses crowd". After all if I am going to be f@cked as a taxpayer perhaps I can at least create an inflation / currency devaluation "investment". Everyone else seems to be playing this game.

12/22/2005 11:53 AM  
Blogger doug_hone said...

This govt. can't afford to bail everyone out. does anyone remember Greemspan's speeches about sallie mae where he reminded invester that sallie is a private corp. and that thier bonds are NOT guaranteed by the Govt.

12/22/2005 1:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My wife and I bought a modest house four years ago in the Chicago area, which has seen considerable, but not "bubble-esque" appreciation since. However, instead of going into an ARM or no-interest or two-headed mortgage, we felt a 6% rate was too good, historically, not to just lock in and not have to worry about rate hikes later on. Although our budget was a little stretched at the time (we put down 10%), we knew we had a total monthly payment we could live with.

A lot of people thought we were crazy for not taking an ARM, but we're both of the belief that if it sounds too good to be true, it is.

All I know is, I sleep well at night. And right now, 6% is looking good.

12/22/2005 2:11 PM  
Blogger loonofficer said...

Hi SoCalMtgGuy,

How about educating the readers on the property tax implications for newly constructed homes?
I'm sure you have encountered many homeowners who, once the ink had dried on the loan docs, went out and splurged on the Hummer, the 52" plasma (with 6 Megawatt surround sound, naturally), all furnishings from Pier 1 Imports etc.,etc., only to find that the following year their property tax bill somehow just jumped through the roof.
I feel this is going to be particularly painful for the flippers in AZ and FL whose homes are still vacant but were assured by the realtor/builder that the "investment" would at least break even.

12/22/2005 4:02 PM  
Anonymous tom said...

One very import facet of this crazy time is the internet. Almost everyone can do their job from home now! I don't need to tell people on this blog that the internet is fundamentally changing everything.

I'm a programmer and I'm working on 'workflow' web based applications. I'm making it possible for a person who develops business plans in West Virginia can work with a marketing strategy person in Texas who works with an account manager in Washington D.C.

People won't need to live in an expensive city to have a good job.

12/22/2005 4:36 PM  
Anonymous tom said...

Wherever there is turmoil, there is also opportunity. Here is a great site that is tracking the changes in inventory and sales:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/

12/22/2005 4:47 PM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

ff2017-
do you really think Fannie and Freddie are stuck with this? They do only conforming loans, and no one in CA does conforming, since they only lend up to $425k (?), or some amount like that, way below the median home price. Besides, they just repackage their loans as MBS, so the people stuck with it are pension funds, chinese and japanese central banks, hedge funds. Investors in MBS will lose when these loans are not repaid. Or am I missing something here?
We have a 30 yr fixed JUMBO loan, and it was sold within 1 billing cycle. I have never made a mortgage payment to FNM or FMAC, in any of the over 12 mortgages I've held, even the conventional ones.

12/22/2005 6:36 PM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

tom -
I checked the site, and it says inventory for SD is about 9,000, but this site http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2005/12/tracking-san-diego-county.html
shows inventory is 15,000.
Who is right?
SoCalMtgGuy, any ideas?

12/22/2005 6:38 PM  
Anonymous tom said...

SoCalMtgGuy,
I'm not sure which is more accurate. But I think Sept was the peak and prices have been going down since then

12/22/2005 6:44 PM  
Blogger NetNerdvana said...

If people want socialism, let them go to Canada.

Right on with that! If you want socialism go to Canada and vote for the NDP (aka Communists). Ya know the number one myth that American's believe about Canada is that the health care is free. Heh, I laugh my head off whenever I hear it from my American friends and say ... "like, dude, if the health care is free, then why did the Alberta Heathcare guys send me a bill for 200$/month when I LEFT CANADA TO GO WORK IN THE STATES????". I had to write a nice letter ana 'splain to my hommies in canuckistan dat I no longer hab me crib der no more.

The truth is that in Canada the company you work for pays for your heath care but you get UIC (Unemployment Insurance) deducted off your paycheck, In USA its typically the opposite ...

Another difference between USA and Canada: In Canada you don't write off the interest you pay to da banksters on your taxes.... That's right. 45% income tax, 25% GST in newfoundland and no income tax write off on housing. Kinda puts a damper on the old housing mania in Canada eh?

12/22/2005 7:49 PM  
Blogger ocrenter said...

mtnrunner2 and tom,

both sites are right. my site includes the entire SD county, his numberscover SD city.

12/23/2005 1:24 AM  
Blogger mtnrunner2 said...

ocrenter -
Why has the SD city inventory remained constant since August? I had heard inventory was creeping up, but no in the city limits of SD.

12/23/2005 5:39 AM  
Blogger ocrenter said...

the numbers did plateau a bit. with my numbers, we are looking at just 2000 extra listings from August to November, then most of that 2000 listings are erased as people took their listings off for the holidays. Same with Housing Tracker's numbers. But we did start off with 3000 listings for the entire SD county in mid 2004. So to get from 3000 to 15000 was quite a climb.

When I sold my condo (in OC)in early summer the several agents I spoke with all strongly discouraged waiting until after summer. Perhaps the plateau was partly shaped by that in SD. Spring will be quite telling, my friend.

12/23/2005 8:03 AM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

It really doesn't matter that much what you use to track the inventory, as long as you stay at the same place.

I suggest you use ziprealty.com It is updated several times a day and I find that it is more accurate than realtor.com.

Realtor.com is like a bad scale. It is off, but it will still tell you if you are gaining or losing weight. I used to use realtor.com until I found ziprealty.

SoCalMtgGuy

12/23/2005 12:44 PM  
Blogger Van Housing Blogger said...

Hi NetNerdVana (and other anti-Canadians),

Boy, you oughtta actually visit Canada sometime. Your numbers and 'facts' are WAY off. It's not heaven here, but it sure ain't hell.

VHB

12/23/2005 6:11 PM  
Blogger 41cadillac said...

What is the take on this!

Home prices zoom up in NovemberBy MATTHEW HAGGMANmhaggman@MiamiHerald.comHome prices jumped sharply in November, appearing to counter worries the South Florida housing market is slowing down.
The median price of an existing single-family home jumped to $391,100 in Broward County and $381,600 in Miami-Dade, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.
In October median homes prices had dropped to $368,900 in Broward and $366,300 in Miami-Dade, a steep decline from previous months. Indeed, prices in Broward had dropped for two consecutive months before the release of new sales figures showing a sharp price hike in November. And the persistent rise of interest rates, and the fact mortgage rates have creeped higher, led some to think the long-predicted slowdown of the red hot housing market was finally here.
Others, however, attributed the October dip to hurricanes -- particularly Hurricane Wilma -- that battered South Florida and closed businesses for days.
The pundits predicting a return to skyrocketing home prices turned out to be right, at least for now.
South Florida home prices also rose sharply compared to the same period a year earlier. In Miami-Dade November prices were up 31 percent compared November 2004. In Broward the price of a single-family home in November was up 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile, the number of homes sold in South Florida remained down in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, a relatively consistent trend throughout the year. November homes sales were down 25 percent in Miami-Dade and 21 percent in Broward, compared to the same period the year before.
The Florida Association of Realtors tracks the median price of existing single-family homes. It does not monitor condominium prices

12/26/2005 2:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did Bush do after September 11? Encourage Americans to spend their money. Did Clinton ever speak out on the crazy investing going on while he was in office? No. Has Bush? No. Has the media questioned them on this? No.

When Americans can't even afford a home except through giving up 40 years of their life to pay for it, things are out of control. Bush and Clinton had the power and opportunities to at the very least, speak out on these issues to calm people down. Neither of them did.

We now have a situation where people can't realistically afford homes. Money that could have been saved to stave off financial disaster has been thrown away to banks and banks have gained even more power over Americans.

The media, banks, and politicians - those with power - aren't going to give it up to the average American.

4/02/2006 8:37 AM  
Anonymous Benzo said...

You're wrong about potential rent price being the best way to value a property.

That's only true if the purpose of buying the property is to rent.

If you plan on living in the home, then the potential rent from the property is meaningless.

5/22/2006 7:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

xAnother end to the bubble might come from two changes in consumer attitude. It isn't scientific but it is possible for markets incuding housing to just plain old get exausted. SUV sales are still off 30-60% even though the oil price spike is a memory. Then there are the other consumers, the buyers of MBSecs. I find it likely that they won't want any more paper at any price. This doubly worries me as we discussed earlier how lots of seemingly ordinary commercial paper is merely laundered MBSecs. wow gold opportunity! A careful analysis of what assets or supports are actually behind the loan market would probably dictate caution and lightening up on anything with exposure.

7/17/2006 11:04 PM  
Blogger costa rica said...

Great investment opportunity at Costa Rica Pacific Coast, Preconstruction condos in costa rica ,
Condo sales in costa rica, Retirement property in costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.ramadajaco.com/

3/01/2007 9:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The information of this site is really important since it counts on specific details for interested in real estate. The illustration that offers on the life in Costa Rica and its people seems to me very advisable the image of the country and contributes great benefits for the tourism, business that offers many economic advantages for the country. The increase of real estate in Costa Rica during the last years is the test that Costa Rica in one of the destinies more looked for by the foreigners eager to invest in this point of exuberant beauty of flora and fauna. I also count on information referring to the subject.

More information at: http://www.costa-ricarealestate.com
Great investment opportunity at Costa Rica Pacific Coast, Preconstruction condos in costa rica
Condo sales in costa rica, Retirement property in costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.costa-ricarealestate.com/

4/03/2007 10:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello it seems to me a very pretty pagina and very entrenidad, has a good service for all those people that visits many congratulations by a good site
I invite all that interested person to know a little on my Web site

Condos In Costa Rica.

What is a condominium?
A condominium is a type ownership where certain parts of the property (the units) are owned by individuals, and certain parts (the common elements) are owned in common by the unit owners, all of whom are members of the condominium corporation (the organization responsible for the operation of the condominium). Ownership of a condominium means you own the specific unit plus individual interest in the common property. You have ownership over all space and improvements within the walls of your unit.
It is very important to know that you are buying the condominium building first and then the unit, so make sure you like the building and its financial position. I will assist you with this.
What are condo fees and are there property taxes for condos as well?
A condo fee is a fee that each owner is charged to cover the expenses of the complex and individual unit. For example, in a high-rise condominium, the condo fee includes all utilities, plus building insurance, management and reserve fund contributions. When the plan is registered at Land Titles for a condominium, a separate title is created for each unit. And shown on each title is the owners share in the common property, which is expressed in "unit factors". This "unit factor" can be based on the units proportionate square footage or the initial market price in comparison to the rest of the complex. A budget is prepared for a condominium complex, and the fees are allocated according to the unit factor of each condominium unit.
There are also property taxes for condominiums, and they are also calculated based on the unit factor.
For but information it visits my Web site the following direction http://www.ramadajaco.com

4/09/2007 12:44 PM  
Anonymous thama077 said...

Hello it seems to me a very pretty page and very entertainmet, has a good service for all those people that visits many congratulations by a good site
I invite all that interested person to know a little on my Web site
PRECONSTRUCTION CONDOS IN COSTA RICA
Purchasing a condominium before the construction begins is a way for developers to get the working capitol they need for their projects and for investors to save money on the finished product. Many times investors are able to resell the condominium for a profit before the work is complete, and in some cases condos have sold multiple times with multiple profits before there anyone actually took delivery of the real estate.

This practice is very common in Costa Rica as it provides economic incentives by means of low priced, preconstruction deals to the client, which is mutually benefitial to the developer. The precaution that we take and recommend to our clients, is to be sure that the developer who is building the project, has a proven track record either abroad, or more importantly, here in Costa Rica. Ask your agent to give you some background on the developer, and the team involved in the project including the architect, builder, and developer
For but information it visits my Web site the following direction http://www.ramadajaco.com

4/20/2007 9:39 AM  
Anonymous costa rica real estate said...

The Blame Game has been amusing BBC Radio Ulster listeners since its beginnings in October 2005 as host Tim McGarry and his team of outspoken panellists name, shame and, more importantly, blame just about everyone and everything for all the latest news and current affairs headlines.
The Blame Game panel is a mix of established and up-and-coming talent with one thing in common – they are not afraid to speak their minds. costa rica beachfront property One of Northern Ireland's top contemporary comics, Colin Murphy, joins Belfast funny man Jake O'Kane and Dublin newcomer Neil Delamere as regular members of The Blame Game panel.
http://www.costaricanbrokers.com

6/14/2007 3:23 PM  
Anonymous sportsbook said...

A gains several benefits from this. A is excused from what they have done (which means they can do it again). They can play 'Poor me'. A can also claim social capital as B now owes A something in return for B's apparent failure.sportsbook B joins in because they can play 'Poor me' and also claim social capital. They can also play 'Your fault' in return.
http://www.enterbet.com

7/23/2007 12:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A lot of people ask me how I like living in Costa Rica. My answer is, it was the best decision that I made in my life. I came to Costa Rica 7 years ago on a vacation and quickly fell in love with the beauty of the country and the hospitality of the people here. I couldn't wait to come back. I started coming here about 4 times per year and always had a great time and didn't want to leave. Two years ago, I decided to leave Arizona and come live in Paradise. I can not tell you how happy I am that I made that decision. Today, I wake up next to the ocean and run on the beach every morning. I eat the most delicious fruits, vegetables and fresh seafood. My stress levels are much lower than when I was living in the States and the potential here for investing, truly is unlimited. The best part of living here is showing our clients this country. I really don't feel like I have a job for the first time in my life. The joy I receive when I see the look on people's faces when they get into the warm water of the Pacific ocean is truly priceless. For those of you that have come and discovered paradise, you know what I am talking about. For those of you that are on the way, I can't wait to get you here. And to those who are thinking about Costa Rica, please do yourself a favor and come down. You will have the time of your life.


We invite you to take a tour on our website, and if should more information is required:





Great Jaco Costa Rica, Quepos real estate, jaco beach condos, costa rica mountain and ocean view properties, jaco beach real estate, beach condos rentals costa rica, condo for sale in costa rica. Visit us for more info at: http://www.costa-ricarealestate.com

8/01/2007 12:49 PM  
Blogger Celia said...

This page is fantastic, what you show us is very interesting and important, do you want to see something more? Look: Great investment opportunity in jaco bay, jaco beach, jaco beach costa rica, Visit us for more info at: http://www.jaco-bay.com/

9/11/2007 5:50 PM  
Blogger Omar Cruz said...

These articles are fantastic; the information you show us is interesting for everybody and is really good written. It’s just great!! Do you want to know something more? Read it...:Great investment opportunity in Costa Rica: Jaco Rental Beach Condo, Jaco Rentals Beach Condo,Vacation Condos in Jaco Beach for Rent. Visit us for more info at: http://www.jaco-bay.com/

9/24/2007 4:35 PM  
Anonymous newly built townhouses in washington dc said...

companies marketing mineral makeups and also get the best bargains in mineral makeup you can imagine,
find aout how to consolidate your students loans or just how to lower your actual rates.,
looking for breast enlargements? in Rochester,
homeopathy for eczema learn about it.,
Allergies, information about lipitor,
save big with great bargains in mineral makeup,

change edition interviewing motivational people preparing second
,

interviewing motivational people preparing second time
,

interviewing people motivational preparing for a second time
,

black mold exposure
,

black mold exposure symptoms
,

black mold symptoms of exposure
,

free job interview questions
,

free job interview answers
,

interview answers to get a job
,

lookfor hair styles for fine thin hair
,

search hair styles for fine thin hair
,

hair styles for fine thin hair
,

beach resort in the philippines
,

great beach resort in the philippines
,

luxury beach resort in the philippines
,
iron garden gates, here,
iron garden gates,
wrought iron garden gates
, here
,
wrought iron garden gates
,
You: The Owner's Manual: An Insider's Guide to the Body That Will Make You Healthier and Younger
,
answer from more much,
eat eating mindless more than think we we why
,
la times classified,
new york times classified


texturizer,
texturizers here,
black hair texturizer,
find aout how care curly hair,
find about how to care curly hair,
care curly hair,
lipitor rash,
lipitor reactions,
new house ventura california,
the house new houston tx,
new house washington dc,
new house washington dc,
new house ventura california,
the house new houston tx,
the house new houston tx, that you ar looking for,
new house ventura california, you need to buy,
new house washington dc,

hair surgery transplant
,

air filter allergy
,

refurbished dell laptop computers
,

hair surgery transplant
,

air filter allergy
,

refurbished dell laptop computers
,

hair surgery transplant
,

air filter allergy
,

refurbished dell laptop computers
,

chocolate esophagus heartburn study
,

chocolate esophagus heartburn study
be informed,

digestion healing healthy heartburn natural preventing way
,

digestion healing healthy heartburn natural preventing way
,


Allergies, lipitor rash,
alcohol rash,
lipitor and alcohol,
lipitor alcohol,

natural remedies to aid healing of esophagus
,

chicory heartburn
,

effectiveness of zocor vs. lipitor
,

chocolate esophagus
,
southwestern wrought iron yard gate,
exterior iron gates,
oriental wrought iron gates,
powder coated iron garden fencing,

12/17/2007 6:12 AM  
Anonymous tax forms said...

black mold exposure,black mold symptoms of exposure,wrought iron garden gates,your next iron garden gates, here,hair styles for fine thin hair,search hair styles for fine thin hair,night vision binoculars,buy, night vision binoculars,lipitor reactions,lipitor reactions,luxury beach resort in the philippines,beach resort in the philippines,homeopathy for baby eczema.,homeopathy for baby eczema.,save big with great mineral makeup bargains,companies marketing mineral makeups,prodam iphone praha,Apple prodam iphone praha,iphone clone cect manual,manual for iphone clone cect,fero 52 binoculars night vision,fero 52 night vision,best night vision binoculars,buy, best night vision binoculars,computer programs to make photo albums,computer programs, make photo albums,free printable tax forms,printable tax forms, free here,craftmatic adjustable air bedcraftmatic adjustable air bed, info hereboyd night air bedboyd night air bed, low priceair bed in wisconsinbest air beds in wisconsincloud air inflatable bedbest cloud air inflatable bedsportable sealy air bedportables, sealy air bedsaluminum rv luggage racksaluminum made, rv luggage racksair bed form raisedbest air beds form raisedsupport equipments aircraftbest support equipments for aircraftsinformercials bed airbest, informercials bed airmattress sized air bedsbest mattress sized air bedantique doorknob identificationantique doorknob, identification tipstroubleshooting dvd playertroubleshooting with the dvd playerflat panel television lcd versus plasmaflat panel television, lcd versus plasma pic the bestcauses of economic recessionwhat are the causes of economic recessionbed air foam adjustablebed air adjustable foam hoof prints antique and unusual equestrian printshoof prints, antique equestrian printsbuy adjustable air bedbuy the best adjustable air bedsair bedscanadian storesair beds, cheap canadian stores

4/14/2008 2:26 PM  
Blogger Stivel Velasquez said...

Top comics Colin Murphy, Jake O’Kane and Neil Delamere are back with Tim McGarry for a new series of the Blame Game. Each week they'll be joined by a special guest comedian. costa rica jaco atv tours Having already struck up plenty of rapport over the months on BBC Radio Ulster, Colin, Neil,and Jake can ensure plenty of quick-firing banter, insults and, of course, finger-pointing as they battle it out to see who’s the best at apportioning blame – and Colin and Neil set about their own private battle of north versus south.
http://www.axrjaco.com

3/05/2009 9:25 AM  
Blogger Stivel Velasquez said...

BK 'breaks the rules' with new table service MIAMI--Burger King's introduction of soporte tecnico jaco costa rica limited table service at 900 company units could open a floodgate of new products and services for the No. 2 hamburger chain, said marketing executive Ned Owens.
http://www.magicsolutionssa.com

7/22/2009 2:13 PM  
Blogger kimberly sayer said...

Vancouver Housing Blogger just won first place in the Business Blog and Local Blog categories at this year's Canadian Blog Awards, and just recently captured Best Regional Blog in the North American Real Estate Blogging Awards, and as our story about him and the B.C. housing bubble was one of the most popular stories in recent months, we invited him to be the first and were delighted when he accepted.costa rica fishingI blog about the real estate market here in Vancouver, covering all the ups and downs. Lots of "ups" in the last few years, but signs are starting to tilt to the "down" side. To keep abreast of developments, I frequent many housing and real estate related blogs. Some are indispensable, and their absence would leave me feeling empty and under informed.
http://www.fishingcostaricaexperts.com

12/01/2009 6:27 PM  
Blogger kimberly sayer said...

It probably doesn't pay to spend a lot of time discerning responsibility for this mess.costa rica fishingI think it was made possible by the ultra low interest rates which were made possible by the Fed's campaign to smother inflation expectations. Nonetheless.costa rica fishingthis is a serious problem and when the system begins to unravel, the Fed will be there with its checkbook rendering support.costa rica fishingI couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden. At least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst.costa rica fishingWe're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime
It took well over 10 years for the Japanese property bubble to work itself out and forecasting a bottom on this one is almost impossible.costa rica fishingIf we have a sudden, major move in interest rates, it could come in 6 months. Otherwise, it could take years.I couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden.costa rica fishingAt least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst. We're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime.
http://www.fishingcostaricaexperts.com

12/02/2009 6:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your web-site is undoubtedly probably the best . Overall impact of the webpage is just fabulous .
Hartford Locksmiths
Locksmith In Nashville
Locksmith Daly City CA
Sunnyvale locksmith
Locksmith Sunnyvale CA
Locksmith Sunnyvale
Sunnyvale locksmith
locksmith fort worth tx
locksmith fort worth tx
pembroke pines locksmith
locksmith miami beach fl
locksmith miami beach fl
locksmith miami beach fl
locksmith fort worth tx
locksmith irvine ca
locksmith in hialeah
mesquite tx locksmith
locksmith irvine ca
locksmith in hialeah
locksmith in hialeah
locksmith irvine ca

3/20/2011 10:07 PM  
Blogger nikeshoessalesale said...

So how is the Nike vapor soccer shoes changed? Visually. the new Vapor football boots have undergone the same new paint work as the Nike Mercurial Superfly boots and now feature the updated asymmetric, fluorescent.

7/24/2011 7:33 AM  
Blogger UGG Outlet said...

The cheap New UGG Classic Tall Boots features lavish twin-faced sheepskin for the utmost comfort. Precision craftsmanship is evident in the Classic Short reinforced heel and raw seams. Enjoy your shopping on UGG Outlet.

ugg australia uk show more products detail information.

8/26/2011 6:33 PM  
Blogger NIKE most models said...

Ah good exciting content! Will always come to our attention. To bring you good news-works perfect! So how is the Nike Football Cleats cleatschanged? the original Nike Speed boot!New products Nike Mercurial Vapor Superfly for us.the new Vapor football boots have undergone the same new paint work as the nike mercurial vapor superfly III and now feature the Nike Football Boots updated asymmetric.

9/03/2011 9:28 AM  
Blogger nikeairmaxshoe said...

uggs clearance But you should be inclined to shell out Uggs Outlet time to sit and lookup for what you want and obtain a pair of boots that fits into your finances and fits your requirements ugg boots clearance.

12/08/2011 9:05 PM  
Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 4 DOLLARS said...

Theirs plenty of blame to go around.

1/09/2013 11:37 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Google
 
Web www.anotherf@ckedborrower.com