Sunday, March 12, 2006

The 40-yr mortgage

Quick update: I am not going to be available that much this week via computer. I was presented with a very good opportunity that I decided to take advantage of. That said, no time for a 'new' post. But here is a repost of an older topic that I think more people need to look at again. I keep getting e-mails about 40yr and longer term mortgages. Here is the math behind it. Those of you that have sent me e-mail, I will get back to you this weekend. Spend time in the FORUMS....LOTS of info going on there. Thanks! SoCalMtgGuy
The 40yr it for YOU?!?!?

Why be knee deep in debt for 30 years, when you can do it for 40 years?!?!?

I'm sure many of you have heard about the latest and greatest "advancement" in the mortgage industry: the 40 year mortgage. These come in various forms: 2/38, 3/37, 40 year fixed, and 40/30 mortgages. The 40/30 mortgage is a "balloon" mortgage. The loan is amortized over 40 years, but a "balloon" payment is due for the balance of the loan in 30 years. You have to either pay it off, or refi the remaining portion. The 2/38 and 3/37 are your standard ARM mortgages that are fixed for 2 or 3 years, then adjust for the next 37 or 38 years. Sounds like fun doesn't it?!?!?

Now that we know the basic types of these loans, lets see how it hits the old pocketbook. I am going to compare the payments at different rates, using 30, 40 and 100 year mortgages. WHAT, a hundred year mortgage?!?!? Well, they aren't here yet...but in the effort to "keep homes affordable" we might see it in the future. I think you will be surprised with what you see in regards to the 100yr mortgage. You will see that even a 100yr mortgage does not lower payments that dramatically, especially for the money you will end up paying in the long run.

I am using 2 loan sizes that are "typical" in high value areas. Again, take the numbers for what they are worth. Look at the trends. Lots of things to go over here. Here are the numbers for a $400,000 and $800,000 loan at 30yr fixed, 40yr fixed, and 100yr fixed payments.

$400,000 loan at 5% 30yr fix = $2147.28 . . . . .total pmt = $773,023
$400,000 loan at 5% 40yr fix = $1928.78 . . . . .total pmt = $925,817
$400,000 loan at 5% 100yr fix = $1678.09 . . . . .total pmt = $2,013,709

$400,000 loan at 6% 30yr fix = $2398.20 . . . . .total pmt = $863,352
$400,000 loan at 6% 40yr fix = $2200.85 . . . . .total pmt = $1,056,408
$400,000 loan at 6% 100yr fix = $2005.04 . . . . .total pmt = $2,406,048

$400,000 loan at 7% 30yr fix = $2661.21 . . . . .total pmt = $958,035
$400,000 loan at 7% 40yr fix = $2485.72 . . . . .total pmt = $1,193145
$400,000 loan at 7% 100yr fix = $2335.50 . . . . .total pmt = $2,802,600

Whew, lots of things we can learn from these numbers. Let us look at some simple things first, like the impact of interest rates on things. Look at the 30yr fixed payment on the 3 loans. 5% is a pretty accurate fixed rate that wasn't that hard to get the past few years. Right now, rates are in the 6% range, and if you look at the projections, fixed rates around 7% could be here in 12-18 months. Many subprime/alt-a borrowers today are in the 7% range. That $2147 payment at 5% covers the mortgage at $400k. That same $2147 payment at 7% only covers a loan amount of $322,710 !! That is a 19.3% drop in buying power, with just the rate going up 2% from 5 to 7%.

Let's see if the 40yr mortgage would help us here. Let's keep the same $2147 payment, but lets do a 40yr loan at 7%. The same payment on a 7% 40year loan only covers the mortgage on an amount of $345,492! That is still 13.6% short of what a 5% loan on a 30yr fixed did just a year or so ago!

Let's see what the $2200 payment from the 40yr loan at 6% would buy us on a 30yr fixed loan at 6%: it would make a 30yr fixed mortgage payment on a $366,941 loan. By using the same payment on a 30 and 40 year loan, we would be able to purchase a house that is only $33,058 more expensive by using a 40yr loan. Would the lifestyle change really be that different between a $367,000 home and a $400,000 home?? The long term finances of it would surely be different. I guess it is up to the bwr to decide. I'm not here to tell you what to do, I'm just here to give you the math behind it. Goodness knows, very few brokers and real estate agents have YOUR best financial interests at hand.

Let's do something really crazy, and assume we actually want to pay our loans off, and live in a house with no mortgage. Look at the total payment amounts! At 6%, the 100 year mortgage saves about $393 a month, but you (and your heirs) would end up paying $1,542,696 MORE over the life of the loan than if you did a 30yr fixed. Even with the 40yr mortgage, you only save 198 bucks, but it costs you an extra $193,056 over the life of the loan.

BUT, let's assume that some of you are astute investors, and you take the money saved and you invest that money instead of buying cars, clothers, vacations, etc. Let's assume you take the $198 and invest it at 6%. At the 30yr mark, where your house would be paid off if you had done the 30yr loan, you would have $198,893 dollars saved (assuming no taxes/expenses/etc.), BUT you would still owe about $198,200. So, if you saved the money, got a 6% return for 30 years, you would just about break even.

Somehow, I think the odds of most people diligently saving and investing the difference is slim. Sure, some of you are going to say I could get 8 to 12% return on my money. Maybe you could, maybe you couldn't. There would be taxes, fund expenses, etc. I'm not here to debate the investment side of things, I'm here to show how the different loan periods can have a dramatic effect on the amount of money you will spend.

Hey wait a second, SoCal, most people only keep their house 5 years before bumping up or refinancing. Those statistics are true about people moving and/or refinancing. BUT people assume that because in the past property has gone up, that it will continue to do so. People generally move up when they have appreciation and/or they make more money. As we have shown, with rates rising, they will HAVE to make more money to afford the same size loan as before. With so many people doing "buy-now, pay-later" loans (ARM's, option ARMs, I/O, etc) they are not going to be able to afford to move up. They will barely be able to afford their own adjusting loans, nevermind taking on a larger loan at higher rates.

And now the larger loan sizes. I'm not going to write as much about these loans below. Just look at the numbers and see how higher rates, and longer mortgage periods really affect the payments.

$800,000 loan at 5% 30yr fix = $4294.57 . . . . .total pmt = $1,546,045
$800,000 loan at 5% 40yr fix = $3857.57 . . . . .total pmt = $1,851,633
$800,000 loan at 5% 100yr fix = $3356.18 . . . . .total pmt = $4,027,419

$800,000 loan at 6% 30yr fix = $4796.40 . . . . .total pmt = $1,726,704
$800,000 loan at 6% 40yr fix = $4401.71 . . . . .total pmt = $2,112,820
$800,000 loan at 6% 100yr fix = $4010.09 . . . . .total pmt = $4,812,108

$800,000 loan at 7% 30yr fix = $5322.42 . . . . .total pmt = $1,916,071
$800,000 loan at 7% 40yr fix = $4971.45 . . . . .total pmt= $2,386,296
$800,000 loan at 7% 100yr fix = $4671.01 . . . . .total pmt = $5,605,216

I know it is hard to read these numbers in the space provided, but I think it gives somewhat of a clear picture the "benefits" and drawbacks of the 40 and 100yr mortgages.

The benefit to the 40yr mortgage is that it will lower your monthly payment today, but you will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars more in the long run. If the only way you can afford a property is a 40yr mortgage or more, you probably need to wait, make more money, or look for a less expensive property.

I didn't even take into account that there is usually a 10, 25, or 35 basis point add for the 40yr program depending on the lender. I am using numbers that give these programs the benefit of the doubt, and I still don't think there are compelling savings or reasons to use these mortgages. Maybe it is just me, but I don't like the feeling of being in debt for 40 years. What do you think?
I'm sure there will be questions and things I will have to explain in further detail, so leave comments and I will do my best to answer your questions.

I am going to keep making my posts over here, but most of the comments are happening at the new site. Go to...

...if you would like to see more comments and activity. Don't forgot to check out the activity in the FORUMS!



Anonymous Anonymous said...

I had a 40yr mortgage figuring on living there 5 yrs and selling but unfortunately my husband passed away and the insurance payed off the house. So in that respect the house payed off financially

5/18/2006 6:57 AM  
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3/11/2010 1:32 AM  

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