Tuesday, February 28, 2006

"The market has turned"

NOT going to do it!

As many of you know, I have mentioned several times that things have gotten quite a bit slower. I think this story pretty much sums it up, especially this part:

“How would you characterize the housing market right now? MOZILO: The market has turned. The psychology of the buyers for single-family homes has clearly changed. We are seeing it from the flow of loan applications. If I had to pick a time, I would have to say it turned in January.”

There you have it, from the CEO of the largest mortgage origination company in the country. If the largest originator in the country is being hit by the slowdown, what do you think is happening to all of the other companies?

Look at the stock price of ECR (Encore Capital Corp). This chart does not surprise me in the least. That is what happens why you try and "buy the market" with crazy rates and guidelines that most other companies wouldn't touch. Encore is known for using the "high" FICO score, not the middle of 3 or lower of 2 like the rest of the industry. Some other companies would do it, but with an add-on to the rate. Encore did it with no add-on. They were also very liberal with pricing for several months there. Maybe that is why they are in the predicament they are in. I'm sure their customers and brokers love them...but at the end of the day, they are taking some large losses on their portfolios.



That said, I have seen the writing on the wall for quite a while now. As things have started slowing down even more, I have began working-on and looking-at other options in and out of the mortgage industry. Just bear with me as I'm working on my plans B, C and D at the moment. It takes quite a bit of time to write 5 completely new posts a week. I really enjoy doing the blog, replying to e-mails, and helping people out...but blogging doesn't exactly pay the bills at this time...I wish it did though!

The forums are becoming an excellent resource. There are over 200 topics, 1300 posts, and almost 250 members. If I don't have a post up, spend some time over on the forums. There are a lot of FB stories, as well as other posters that have a lot of good information to share.

Thank you for your understanding, patience, and support!

BTW...San Diego inventory is now sitting at 17,225 per ziprealty.com.

I look forward to your questions, comments, and feedback!
---
I am going to keep making my posts over here, but most of the comments are happening at the new site. Go to...
www.housingbubblecasualty.com
or
www.anotherf@ckedborrower.com

...if you would like to see more comments and activity. Don't forgot to check out the activity in the FORUMS!

SoCalMtgGuy

8 Comments:

Blogger SCProfessor said...

I respect both your desire and need to focus on Plans B, C, and D, given the economic situation this real estate market faces. From experience I can tell you that employment success in volatile industries in enhanced by having the ability to quickly retool and not hang around too long.

Good luck as you search for options. Thanks for the service you are providing that certain promotes consumer awareness.

2/28/2006 8:21 AM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Thanks SCProfessor!

I'll still keep blogging...the posts just might be a bit shorter, or not come every night.

Thanks!

SoCalMtgGuy

2/28/2006 8:31 AM  
Blogger boulder bo said...

hey socal,

keep up the good work, angelo is one smart dude. he was winding down originations in july while beefing up his reo staff in arizona. oh, and of course he was dumping his holdings. keep in touch.

2/28/2006 2:19 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Will do Boulder Bo!

I'm not going anywhere...just want people to know there might not be a post every night.

You saw the writing on the wall as well...and made some smart moves.

I always like seeing your comments and insight.

Thanks!

SoCalMtgGuy

2/28/2006 3:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I appreciate your effort. You should be focusing on your own work from now on.

I think once or twice a week would be enough.

2/28/2006 3:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SoCal,. it's quality, not Quantity. You have some goood writing style. Write when it's worthwhile. You may even say....site will be updated weekly....please check on Monday morning. etc

2/28/2006 5:18 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Thanks for the input.

I know it is quality, not quantity.

It is good to hear that many readers don't necessairly care if there isn't a new post to read everyday.

I'll keep up the quality writing and content...even if it is fewer times per week.

THANKS!

SoCalMtgGuy

2/28/2006 5:33 PM  
Blogger road hog courier said...

even if you don't post every night i will still go on your blog daily just to catch up on past articles. Also will go on your excellent forums to post thoughts on LA RE.
Thank you for the most insightful detailed discussions on the SCal RE bubble there is.

2/28/2006 10:01 PM  

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