Monday, January 02, 2006

Gotta love that other FB

I know, I know...I'm supposed to have stories of the other FB's we like to "watch" here on this website. I'm sure many of you know that there isn't much new loan activity going on around the Christmas and New Years holiday.

Since there isn't much loan stuff going on during the holidays...I've been enjoying myself and soaking up all the college FB bowl games I can!! I have stayed away from my computer for the most part, and I have enjoyed the time off.

I don't think things will take off just because the holidays are over. It isn't until late February and early March that things start to really pick up again (using past years as a guide). Personally, I think things are going to be much slower this time around. Higher rates, slower to non-existent appreciation, and tighter standards on stated income are going to take a lot of borrowers "off the table" so to speak. Don't worry, that doesn't mean you will get off topic posts for the next 60 days!

For up to the minute updates on bubble activity, keep an eye on Ben's "housing bubble 2" blog that can be found at the top of my links.

I'll be back out in the field looking for loans all this week. I'm sure I will come across a potential FB or two along the way. I must admit, I might have to cut it a bit short Wednesday afternoon as there is going to be one great college football game being played!

Keep checking back and I should be back to my regular posting schedule here shortly.

As usual...any comments and feedback are always appreciated!

SoCalMtgGuy

20 Comments:

Blogger need 2 leave CA said...

Bubbleviewer. You have typed many of my sentiments. Rio Rancho is a very nice city. Last week (as well as in Nov), my wife and I spent 4 days looking at RE all over Albuquerque. I reached the conclusion that commuting over the Rio Grande river would be a choke point as there are only a few major bridges over it. Also, the entire western part of ABQ (both north and south) are being overbuilt with homes before the infrastructure being put in. We also lucked out and found an absoulutely wonderful realtor to help us. I hope the CA 'investors' that are buying site unseen lose their A$$es.

We finally settled for purchasing a house in pristine condition in the NE area. It is 1800 sq ft, 3 bd, 2ba, large lot, safe area, close to everything, etc. Comparable homes that were in bad to fair shape were priced higher than what we bought ($192K) and without a suicide loan. This house would be at least $850K in the Bay area. My wife has taken a 30% pay cut as a school teacher. I am sure I will be at about 30% or so lower also. But a house at 1/4 the cost will more than make up for that. We both loved all of the outdoor amenities and look forward to a much higher quality of life for our children (that we couldn't get in CA). I made some posts on the other letters. I had to come back to CA to arrange for moving and got a depressing feeling as the airplane was descending into OAK. Can't wait to get back to the Land of Enchantment.

A few thoughts on affordability for the locals. Restaurants are just as high as in CA, so I don't know how some of them along the I25 corridor will fare. Gas was just as high, but many other things were lower. I was going to point out Kiyosaki's current statements regarding RE, but someone else already did an excellent job. Ciao to the shattered Golden Dream, and look forward to watching this blow up from out of state.

(Many people are leaving California faster than you think. I am one of them. I have been here 16 yrs, and made the mistake of thinking it was overvalued between 1997 to 2003. My family finally got fed up with being one of the middle class with no future here (East Bay near San Francisco). We are in the process of purchasing a 3bd/2ba 1800 sqft, nice yard, completely remodeled home in the most desirable part of Albuquerque for $192k. Pymt will equal what CA rent has been. Best stat - a Uhaul from Bay area to ABQ is about $3000. ABQ to Bay area is $120 to $200. Ciao to California. The golden dream has turned to a nightmare.

1/03/2006 12:27 AM  
Anonymous rent_boy said...

SoCal

Wish you a prosperous and healthy 2006.

Enjoyed reading your FB stories, mainly because of your writing style. Very funny.

1/03/2006 12:50 AM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Thanks Rent Boy...

There will be many more stories...it is just a slow time of the year.

I will always do my best to keep it entertaining...

SoCalMtgGuy

1/03/2006 12:56 AM  
Blogger need 2 leave CA said...

SoCal - I would like your take on my post regarding Albuquerque, and the post that Ben did on ABQ at 5:51 am yesterday morning. You seem to have a lot of insight. I am joining the homeowner ranks (wife really wanting), but ABQ appears to be a much better bet than the FB here in CA. Fixed loan and will pay off earlier. Fortunately, no debt and some money to put down. Could pay cash if I wanted to liquidate a majority of retirement savings (but know that is a bad idea). Our financial shape is pretty decent. 2 paid for cars, no CC, and will be able to pay our bills (mortgage, utilities, gas, food, no frills) on one salary. Thanks

1/03/2006 1:38 AM  
Blogger need 2 leave CA said...

I had a young couple come over to look at some items I was selling. THey were thinking of a house. I advised them to wait for a few years so they don't get caught. Showed them yours, Ben's, and Patricks site.

You are awesome dude. Keep up the good work. You will save some people from permanent homedebtor slavery.

1/03/2006 1:41 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Need 2 leave CA,

Having only visited ABQ, I know that I liked it. I am told to avoid the southern side, High crime. The food is wonderful, Los Quatos should be on your list of fine New Mexican restaurants. When you say you are in the NE area is that the foothills? if so nice choice! Good luck and enjoy. It is one of the beautiful yet affordable regions left in the country.

1/03/2006 4:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

> I was going to point out Kiyosaki's current statements regarding RE

Can you point me to his current thoughts on RE ?

1/03/2006 4:03 AM  
Blogger need 2 leave CA said...

Metroplexural - we are in the foothills on the NE side. I was already told to avoid the south side for the very reason you mentioned. We had an excellent realtor who actually told us the truth. I will take up your restaurant suggestion. The area in ABQ is beautiful and I am looking forward to living there.

To Anonymous - go to Ben's site, look at the comments for the Albuquerque area being iniduated (spelling doesn't count) with CA flippers, and someone provided an excellent summary of Kiyosaki's current views, and provided the website references.

Summary, Kiyosaki said we are in a big bubble and he was selling a lot of his holdings.

THanks

1/03/2006 9:07 AM  
Blogger Pointlines said...

SoCal:

FIGHT ON!

1/03/2006 10:10 AM  
Blogger moonvalley said...

Update from “Flipperville” in Sonoma….
Bel Tereno an “infill project” (translation:ugly overpriced shitboxes) flooded over the weekend..these places are selling for 1.4m and up…we met some flippers at an event a couple of moths ago boasting of how they were going to “clean up” in the Spring..well…they’re cleaning up a little early..only it’s mud.

1/03/2006 11:42 AM  
Blogger Sensible Lender said...

Another Southern Californian says:

FIGHT ON!!

1/03/2006 12:46 PM  
Blogger r patrick said...

Someone mentioned I don't know if it was here or Ben's blog that there are new fed rules/regualtions coming requiring 20% for ARM loans.

Do you have access to this document? Or what the rules are for most products?

1/03/2006 2:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OT:
I must remain anonymous because I went to UCLA, but I want USC to win. "Go Trojans!"

1/03/2006 7:34 PM  
Anonymous Different SF Renter said...

Inadvertantly picked up Filipino weekly newspaper... mortgage brokers are offering option ARMs with rates as low as 0.5%. Yup -- half a percent! Anyone know how to say "f@cked borrower" in Tagalog?

1/03/2006 9:00 PM  
Blogger blueskies said...

What if the next interest rate move is 50 basis points up? What kind of ripples would that cause in the housing marke?

1/03/2006 9:05 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

need 2 leave ca.

I think you are in great shape. I'm not against buying houses...even at expensive prices...IF you can truly AFFORD the house without playing financial russian roulette.

Sounds like you are doing things right. I wish you the best of luck!

SoCalMtgGuy

1/03/2006 11:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blueskies, it looks like the FED is nearing the end of it's hikes. The markets predict 50 bp but from two meetings of 25 each, then no more hikes.

The real trouble I see is in the total credit outstanding in the US. It is 40 trillion, or 350% GDP, and it's currently growing (based on Q3 2005 figure) at 25% GDP each year.

Not to mention the unfunded benefit liabilities for sosial security and medicare, which are as much as 74 trillion.

Count those two together and you see the future of the US and the future of your asset prices. We're f@cked, all of us.

1/04/2006 2:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's a funny post I read in antoerh forum:

"Late on mortgage forced immediate sale of my Sony s360. Had to pay it in cash since I was a few months behind. So, I replaced it with something I could charge to card and bought a 9300 2 1/2 months old for 900 bones. wuxga/756mb/6800go/1.6ghz/40gb 5400rpm hdd. I'm sure after the sony I will miss the battery time and deffinately the screen from what I hear."

Could this guy be a FB?

1/04/2006 4:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

need 2 leave ca

Where abouts did you land in alb? I was out there a couple weeks ago looking at homes. I looked in rio rancho area. Seems nice out there but can get real cold I hear. I'm a refugee from sacramento looking for affordable home.My stupid as! ex girlfriend but an overpriced place in rocklin ca. I hope she loses her as! when the bubble explodes. Arizona is nice but prices are getting too high.Got any advice of where to look since you spent so much time looking.South side seems out from what I have read.

Arizonadude

1/04/2006 6:14 PM  
Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Its funny but its true.

3/08/2013 7:43 PM  

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