Wednesday, December 21, 2005

The blame game...comments and ramblings

I have recieved several e-mails and comments where people wanted to know my opinion on a few things. Instead of replying to these various comments individually, I will just make a post and give my opinion on various items. Well, here goes...

I don't know how the new BK rules are going to pan out. I don't know if the lawyers are going to find loopholes and exploit the system or not. I don't know if lenders will keep giving 100% I/O loans to borrowers 1-day out of a BK either. I do think it will continue longer than most of us think is prudent or even possible.

I don't know what is going to happen when there are 10's of thousands of homes that are worth much less than the loans on them.

I would like to think the "investor" eats that loss without the government stepping in, but who knows. After all, the government decided to pay for New Orleans homes that did not have flood insurance...what will stop them for doing the same if there is an earthquake in California? Will they pay for the homes where the homeowner decided not to get earthquake insurance? By following the same train of thought...Will the government step in to help people that are upside down on their mortgages?

I sure hope not...but who really knows. It isn't their place to, but history shows otherwise. If enough people are "hurt" by the housing bubble, can you see the politicains pandering to these people for votes as they offer a 'taxpayer' assisted solution to the great mortgage 'crisis' of 2007?? I sure can.

People ask me whose fault I think it is...Greenspan, Bush, media, brokers, realtors, etc. I don't think you can blame any one person for anything this large in scope. Just like I don't think Clinton had much to do with the stock bubble, I don't think Bush had much to do with the RE bubble. Both bubbles are/were fueled by greed and people chasing "easy money". I don't want to make this a political argument....just a mathematical one.

People were buying at $200 becaue there was a greater fool they could sell it to at $300. People were buying 1 bedroom condos for $450,000 because there is (hopefully) a greater fool a $600,000. Clinton didn't force people to buy the stocks, and Bush/Greenspan never forced a hand at the doc signing table. Yes, Bush wanted people to own homes, but he sure didn't say to do it with a stated neg-am if that is the only way you can afford it. I'd like to poll borrowers on "why they bought their property". Somehow, I don't think "cause Bush wanted me too" will fall in the top 10. They were not buying a house because of presidentail recommendations. They were buying a house to live in, and/or as the next great asset class that will provide for a retirement with little to no real work. Why keep working a 40k a year job, when you can buy a condo in Vegas, and make twice that much in 6 months of doing nothing???

Midnight infomercials on daytrading stocks as the "road to riches" were replaced with no-money-down property flipping infomercials as the "road to riches". Whose fault is that?? Go to Border's Books or other big book stores. Most will have a special section dedicated to "real estate investing" and it is full of property flipping and "no-money-down" books to read. Again, whose fault is that?!?!?

The media had "skyrocking" .com stocks on the cover of every magazine...just as they had skyrocking property values this time around. So whose fault is that you ask? I say it is the fault of millions of individuals chasing easy money. Nothing wrong with that, but we all know that there is NO easy money in the long term. The irrational behavior becomes euphoric as "everybody" is getting rich. The mentality becomes, "I want to be rich too, so I had better do what they are doing". Forget's different this time!! ...yeah right.

Sure, interest rates and lending standards helped add fuel to the fire, but you cannot blame that on any ONE person, thing, or entity.

If INDIVIDUALS did their own research, crunched the numbers for themselves, they would have seen BOTH of these bubbles clear as day. People assume that because some financial analyst, broker, realtor, media type, or other person "in the know" says it's different this time, that it is. They see that their neighbor made $200k flipping some properties, so it must mean they can do it as well. Yes, those things happened. People made money trading stocks and flipping houses...but the big variable is WHEN did they get in?!?!?

Buying Cisco in 2000 was a different purchase than in 1994. Just as buying condo conversions for $400k is different than buying larger $400k homes back in 1999. Just like the small print on every mutual fund add says "past performance is no guarantee of future results" the same applies to real estate investments as well...even though it isn't written anywhere. At least in the "stock-jockey" profession, anybody with a Series-7 is extremely careful about NOT "promising" or "guaranteeing" future results. In the loan/RE business, it is just standard practice to tell people that RE goes up, and that people WILL have the equity needed to refi when the time comes. People use 100% I/O loans as part of a financial plan to "get out of debt". How you ask? Well, that's easy, buy a property with no money down, come back in 8-12 months and pull out the cash you need to get out of debt...duh!!! I bet you are wondering why YOU didn't think of that "foolproof"plan.

See, that is the problem. People see the completely irrational happen...and think that is the norm. As more and more people see BECOMES the norm....until it reaches a point where even the "greater fool"...isn't.

Looking back, everybody now sees that stocks trading at 180 times future earnings is NOT right...but it sure made sense at the time. As much as people belived "it WAS different this time", by the end of 2000, most realized it wasn't.

I think people will look back a few years from now, and wonder why they thought a $3500 a month I/O payment on a piece of property they could only rent for $1600 a month was a "good deal".

P/E ratios are one of the best ways to value a stock, just as rental income is one of the best ways to value a property. When either of those get out of whack, you will have problems. Just because things have been able to stay out-of-whack for years, doesn't necessairly mean it is a permanent condition.

Again, I just hope the government stays OUT of the equation. Just because the masses are irresponsible financially, does not mean they should be bailed out by the taxpayers. Individuals should be left to suffer the consequences of their actions. I know a lot of people could be ruined for a long time, but that is a better solution than setting a new precedent of using tax dollars to bail out individuals that made poor investments.

I look forward to the comments...



Anonymous Anonymous said...

I couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden. At least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst. We're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime.

12/21/2005 4:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good blog, mtge guy,

It probably doesn't pay to spend a lot of time discerning responsibility for this mess. I think it was made possible by the ultra low interest rates which were made possible by the Fed's campaign to smother inflation expectations. Nonetheless, this is a serious problem and when the system begins to unravel, the Fed will be there with its checkbook rendering support. It took well over 10 years for the Japanese property bubble to work itself out and forecasting a bottom on this one is almost impossible. If we have a sudden, major move in interest rates, it could come in 6 months. Otherwise, it could take years.

IMO a very common investment mistake is to continue to focus on the previous bubble for returns long after its peak has past. Following the tech bubble collapse of 2000, many continue to await its rebirth and the next run. Too bad, real estate was the next mania. Following the peak in real estate, some gains are possible during the next expansion but we won't see a real estate market like this for many years, IMO.

Please share thoughts on these views.

12/21/2005 4:54 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...


The ultra low rates are part of it, but if you compute the value of property that can be bought with lower rates, it doesn't account for the rise in prices (see the 40year mortgage post below on the blog...lots of numbers in there)

I agree that this thing could take 10 years to bottom out...but like you said, too many variables right now, and nobody knows.

I also agree that people look for these "booms" to take off again. People are waiting until spring for RE to boom again. I don't think it is coming.

I have also heard people say they are going to put money back in the stock market as it looks like it is going to "boom" again.

Instant gratification doesn't seem to be fast enough for most American's now days. Buy it NOW, pay later. Trade a stock, flip a property, be set for life. Congrats to the people that DID make it, but I don't think it is a solid long term plan for the masses.

There is NO easy money in the long term, and I don't think there ever will be. There will be mania's, but they will be followed by busts...all you can do is hope that people will learn. AND/OR use logic to not get in the situation in the first place.


12/21/2005 5:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You hit the nail on the head.

Great Blog! Too bad more people didn't read it. They would have saved their financial A$$es from getting nailed by the impending crash.

12/21/2005 5:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am of the opinion that it has turned. Does that mean there will be a rapid decline? I suspect not as rapid as many here believe. That is in part a result of stubborn real property owners who will express an unwillingness to recognize their losses by not lowering their asking prices to reasonable levels given market conditions.

Does that mean real properties won't go down to reasonable levels of affordability? No. It simply means that it will take more time. I'm thinking we are looking at 2009-10 before we reach the bottom. Good news in all of this is it will be a somewhat controlled slide, and not likely involve government intervention beyond perhaps the creation of a Resolution Trust Corporation like entity to take over the responsibility of failed lenders, servicing non-performing assets that become government owned loans and properties.

I would hope that the events of the next few years will serve as a “wake up call” for those misguided individuals who think that there isn’t a downside to investing in real estate. However, I’m convinced that most of us suffer from memory loss and few will remember the disasters associated with this business downturn.

12/21/2005 5:31 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...


I completely agree with you. Until more people get that burning feeling inside that the governemnt is taking their hard earned money with the 'point of a gun', and wasting it, nothing will change.

I want my arguments to be validated with MATH and logic. I wish government would actually crunch the numbers are see HOW we are going to pay for things, instead of just how it FEELS.

Yes, it is "nice" to pay for all of the homes that got flooded out in New Orleans that didn't have flood insurance, but WHO and HOW are we going to pay for that?!?!?

Is it right to take the tax dollars of somebody who PAID for their insurance, and use those dollars to pay for somebody who didn't??

I don't think the government should take money from people that CAN afford their homes, to help out those that CAN'T.

You have the freedom to make good decisions and reap the rewards, and you have the freedom to make bad decisions and reap the consequences.

What am I missing??


12/21/2005 5:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Government f@cked the taxpayer during the Savings and Loan scandel so I suspect the taxpayers will get a good f@cking when the current real estate bubble deflates. We will probably get more inflation, more taxes and a lower valuation on the US dollar relative to other currencies.

The sad thing is that citizens will then turn around and vote for more of the same.

The question is how to protect oneself from all this. Perhaps there is a way to make some money from this braindamage.

12/21/2005 6:23 PM  
Blogger Lou Minatti said...

No comment except to say I couldn't have said it better.

12/21/2005 7:20 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Thanks Lou and Boulder Bo!

It's good to have regular readers/posters like yourselves.

Maybe people will learn there is no free lunch once this housing bubble runs it's course. Sure, lots of people made money, but many more are going to watch paper-gains evaporate before their eyes.

Nobody wants to buy low, sell high anymore...they want to buy low and sell HIGHEST!

Oh well...they will learn as they watch their profits disappear. There are no "stop-loss" orders on housing.


12/21/2005 7:39 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Siliconvalley renter...

You are doing the right thing. Paying 2k for a 4 bedroom home is great...and you are saving $1000 a month at least.

If you were to get an 100% I/O loan on a 400k condo at 7% (realistic ballpark rate), you would be paying about 3k a month with taxes and HOA.

Yes, you are "renting" right now, but you have space, freedom, and flexibility that most of these owners do not. See how their tune changes as they see thier property values slipping lower, and their ARM payments getting higher.

YOU will have money in the bank, and many of them will not.

12/21/2005 8:18 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

Let's try to keep it housing related or related to the government response to housing.

There are lots of other places to debate politics...



12/21/2005 8:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bottomfeeder: Funny comment but please do a google search on "run-on sentence".

It is true that Canadian health care is a joke (a 3-hour wait for a blood test?), but personally I prefer home rememdies to paying a 25-year-old doctor $950 to tell me I can avert my cat allergies by staying away from cats. Gee, never thought of that one!

But back to RE, does Canada have similar loan practices as the US? i.e. the use of exotic, I/O, option ARM, etc... just curious as I don't hear much about it.

12/21/2005 8:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re Reductions comments from mtnrunner -- it would be great if there was a insider like socal that could post periodic summaries of the MLS reductions sheets for SD, OC, LA -- it would be great if we could see those weekly in the Times, the Register, and the Union Tribune. But no... that would really expose the bubble and cause a mass uproar!!

Re Bailouts - hope the gov does not intervene other than manipulating interest rates. I would also hate to see my taxed dollars go to helping some $100K+ salary guy "maintain" his lifestyle when he can no longer afford his payment on the 800K home when his ARM adjusts (or some $40K guy who has irresponsibly gotten in over his head on a $300K condo going "stated") -- where is the justice for those of us that looked at the numbers and said, "you know what, this is not a financial sound decision"... how's that for "taxation without representation" -- essentially they would representing only FB homeowners.

12/21/2005 8:55 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

anon 8:55

Check this blog for MLS updates on various bubble markets:


12/21/2005 9:02 PM  
Blogger foreclose_me said...

I've got a blog idea for the mtg guy.

Mortgage fiends are looking at a serious problem with the Katrina situation. They calculated a certain number of foreclosures in an area, but never enough simultaneously to literally 'become' the market.

So the question is, what are the fiends looking at in terms of loss from either forebearance, or foreclosure?

And is it not a possible insight into what they will face when mass foreclosures begin hitting the entire United States?

Netherlands banks supposedly go real easy in their current bubble-bust, but will that option be available in the US under our banking rules and considering who owns our MBS?

12/21/2005 10:39 PM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...


Yup, I am a renter. I used to beat myself up over it, but now I do it happily. Once I got into the mortgage industry, I got to see 1st hand how people were "affording" these houses. For the longest time I was dumbfounded and felt "poor" because I didn't make enough money to afford a house or condo. Little did I know that I made more money than the people that WERE buying many of the properties out there. I thought everybody was putting money down and doing fixed rate mortgages...boy was I wrong.

I would have to pay at least 2-3 times my rent to "own" the place I am in with an I/O mortgage.

I make more money than most (per the Ca statistics), but I don't feel comfortable taking on $500k of debt with an I/O or neg am loan to own a condo.

I'm not fooled by the "just get in", and RE only goes up mantra that sooo many people have bought into in SoCal.

If I'm wrong, so be it...I have quite a bit of money in savings, and the freedom and flexibility to do what I want, when I want.

I don't think appreciation will outpace what I'm saving every month the next year or so, so I choose to wait. I think the upside to buying now is no where NEAR the potential downside of buying right now.


12/21/2005 10:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been posting sales and inventory stats for almost a year now for the Cocoa Beach Florida market. We are at extreme levels at present (high inventory and slooooow sales)and the mood is one of complete denial. Everyone expects it to be business as usual come Jan. Our main disaster will be pre-construction condos. We have a crop incubating right now that will explode in 2006. You can follow the trend of the numbers and my comments at

12/22/2005 3:06 AM  
Blogger grim said...

For anyone in the Northern NJ area, I routinely post a handful of weekly price reduced listings as well as lowballed sales on my blog. It's been a big hit. I don't post up anything other than MLS number and the prices, but it's easy enough to go to and pull up the listing to take a look.

You couldn't post the entire price change sheets up for large areas, North Jersey is usually around 300-400 listings a week. Plus, I believe it is a violation of most MLS use terms. Unless you had some other way to gather the data, the agent/broker providing you that data could get into some trouble (especially if you are posting addresses or other personal info).

Northern NJ Real Estate Bubble

12/22/2005 4:31 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Wow. These comments go all over the place! First off, aplogies to Tyler Durden for the uber-patriotism and the uncalled-for digs at our much better-mannered neighbors to the north.

Second, agreed no bailouts! When it comes to personal finances, these people need to have some personal accountability. There's always a time to pay for living beyond your means. You can save for it or you can pay later, and these people already made their choice.

Thirdly thanks to mtnrunner2 for the chart and the latest SD home inventory number. Yep, that's off the chart alright. In fact if it were plotted to scale it would be off the monitor and up to my software shelf :)

12/22/2005 6:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The blame game will be at a full boil by this time next year.

What is the incentive to be cautious if the gov't bails people out time after time? I live in FL. People here have their million dollar beach homes washed away every couple years by a hurricane. It's practically impossible to get private insurance for those properties. So the state subsidizes the property insurance and FEMA pays to rebuild the house. It seems to me if you desire and can afford to live on the overpriced beach you should be able to insure it.

I suspect the gov't will bail out people who are in way over their heads either by artifically stimulating the market or providing tax incentives that feed the deficit and prolong/postpone the agony.

The first sign of a bubble pop is denial (we are seeing this now). Then comes acceptance (people will acknowledge that they can't use their home as an ATM) then panic (must sell because I can't afford my home).

The one thing that can be blamed for the bubble is the rampant consumerism that is destorying our lifestyle. It has become a game of sorts to see who can have the newest and nicest stuff and make the most money on houses. The flipping tv show is a perfect example. People tend to believe buying houses is a short-term investment and move every year or two. Whatever happened to the day when a house was seen as a place to live and be part of a community? I don't want to be part of a community full of transients where every other house is for sale each year. Consumerism is NOT healthy for our economy, lifestyles, or communities.

We're digging our own grave.

12/22/2005 7:06 AM  
Blogger Lou Minatti said...

We'll see wether the US or Canada gets hit harder if the bubble burst.

I assume Canada is infected with bubble pockets much the same as the US. I know that Vancouver is grossly overpriced. What about the Maritimes? What about Montreal? Winnipeg? Edmonton? AFAIK, the Canadian bubble is mostly confined to Vancouver and Toronto. (Which, unfortunately, account for a large proportion of the Canadian population!)

These boils on our countries need to be lanced before they spread their infection any further. Draining the abcesses of the infectious speculative pus is the only cure.

(How's THAT for a bad analogy?)

12/22/2005 8:08 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


They will be renting from the banks that forclose on them.

12/22/2005 9:39 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the Maritimes? What about Montreal? Winnipeg? Edmonton?

I live in Montreal and there is no bubble here, we are probably on top of a normal cycle but, there is no insanity. Prices doubled since 2000 but, they were falling in the previous decade. Average price in 2000 were close to the annual household average wage so even with 100% raise in 5 years, it's still affordable. I never heard about anybody flipping, owning 2 houses, people who buy a house or a condo live in it.

If there is a bubble in Quebec, it's close to ski stations(Tremblant, Bromont, St-Sauveur) where Americans and local rich baby boomers are buying luxury condos as vacation home.

There is no exotic mortgage in Canada, ARM are commons but, there is option ARMs, IOs. You can't have an heloc for more than 75%.

I think another difference is that interest are not tax deductible so, we see interest payment as a spending and not as a way to maximize our tax return.

What is dangerous in Eastern Canada, is that our economy is dependant on american consumer so, we will be hit badly as a side effect. This will be a real shock, there is almost nobody that are aware of the US bubble.

12/22/2005 10:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like the government is finally "waking up" and beginning to fully realize the risk of mass amounts of FBs.

This is from Patrick's blog:
FDIC Warns of Risky Mortgages

12/22/2005 10:30 AM  
Blogger moonvalley said...

The number of people filing for bankruptcy or insolvency in England and Wales rose 46% from 2004 to 2005 to a record, according to Britain's Department of Trade and Industry. The average Briton has $5,188 in credit card debt, according to a December survey by Datamonitor. In the USA, the average debt per household is $9,312, according to

Analysts say Britons' reliance on credit cards arose in recent years from a strong economy combined with low interest rates and easy availability of credit. Indirectly, the high cost of living, especially in London, also has been a factor, says Michael Penn, an economist with Merrill Lynch.
In recent months, the British economy has started to show signs of stagnancy: Interest rates are rising, adjustable-rate mortgage payments are increasing, consumer confidence is down, and retailers are reporting a disappointing holiday season, Penn says.

This story from one of the frothiest spots on the planet struck me this morning. The Brits have just rolled over and are beginning too wake up after taking the Debt Pig to bed. Guess it looked pretty good last night before last call. Meanwhile over here we're still snoozing onthe sofa with that little drool spot. Considering the exchange rate, their debt is probably pretty close to the amount owed by the average American. Wonder what their BK laws are like?

12/22/2005 10:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe most of the problems can be placed on the feet of the Fed. By lowering interest rates and reliquidfying the moneytary system after 9/11 they basically forced people to invest/speculate. With interest rates at ~1% and published headline inflation at 2-3% (yeah right), leaving money in the bank essentially meant you were losing purchasing power and compounded to boot.

As far as how we're going to get out of this impending mess. We'll have "Helicopter Ben." Once the cracks start showing, he'll start cutting rates and printing money like no tomorrow. The value of the dollar will plunge so it'll be easier to pay off a $500k loan when the value of the new dollar you're using to pay off the loan isn't worth as much.

As for the loans, much of the loans have been securitized, repackaged and sold off to Fannie and Freddie who in turned issued debt purchased by pension funds. So if the loans are in doubt, the government will have to bail out fannie and freddie's loan portfolio. So essentially, Savings and Loan Crisis Part Deux, just much worse.

12/22/2005 11:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon @ 6:23
"The question is how to protect oneself from all this. Perhaps there is a way to make some money from this braindamage."

1) Borrow 1 million $US with a negative amortizing option-ARM loan.
2) Buy 1 milliion worth of gold and silver ingots
3) Put the bullion in a safety deposit box in Switzerland
4) Wait for the US gummint to bail out your defaulted loan
5) PROFIT!!!!!!

12/22/2005 11:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Ferromancer,

I thought about the possibility of buying a large house and then leveraging it to the hilt with a fixed rate mortgage. If government inflates you win. If government does not inflate simply send the keys back to the bank. If you have enough other assets it doesn't matter if your credit rating is hurt. The only issue is to make sure that the loan is only secured by the house - i.e. the lender cannot come after your other assets. This seems to me to be a way of joining the "heads we win, tails the taxpayer loses crowd". After all if I am going to be f@cked as a taxpayer perhaps I can at least create an inflation / currency devaluation "investment". Everyone else seems to be playing this game.

12/22/2005 11:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My wife and I bought a modest house four years ago in the Chicago area, which has seen considerable, but not "bubble-esque" appreciation since. However, instead of going into an ARM or no-interest or two-headed mortgage, we felt a 6% rate was too good, historically, not to just lock in and not have to worry about rate hikes later on. Although our budget was a little stretched at the time (we put down 10%), we knew we had a total monthly payment we could live with.

A lot of people thought we were crazy for not taking an ARM, but we're both of the belief that if it sounds too good to be true, it is.

All I know is, I sleep well at night. And right now, 6% is looking good.

12/22/2005 2:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One very import facet of this crazy time is the internet. Almost everyone can do their job from home now! I don't need to tell people on this blog that the internet is fundamentally changing everything.

I'm a programmer and I'm working on 'workflow' web based applications. I'm making it possible for a person who develops business plans in West Virginia can work with a marketing strategy person in Texas who works with an account manager in Washington D.C.

People won't need to live in an expensive city to have a good job.

12/22/2005 4:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wherever there is turmoil, there is also opportunity. Here is a great site that is tracking the changes in inventory and sales:

12/22/2005 4:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not sure which is more accurate. But I think Sept was the peak and prices have been going down since then

12/22/2005 6:44 PM  
Blogger ocrenter said...

mtnrunner2 and tom,

both sites are right. my site includes the entire SD county, his numberscover SD city.

12/23/2005 1:24 AM  
Blogger ocrenter said...

the numbers did plateau a bit. with my numbers, we are looking at just 2000 extra listings from August to November, then most of that 2000 listings are erased as people took their listings off for the holidays. Same with Housing Tracker's numbers. But we did start off with 3000 listings for the entire SD county in mid 2004. So to get from 3000 to 15000 was quite a climb.

When I sold my condo (in OC)in early summer the several agents I spoke with all strongly discouraged waiting until after summer. Perhaps the plateau was partly shaped by that in SD. Spring will be quite telling, my friend.

12/23/2005 8:03 AM  
Blogger SoCalMtgGuy said...

It really doesn't matter that much what you use to track the inventory, as long as you stay at the same place.

I suggest you use It is updated several times a day and I find that it is more accurate than is like a bad scale. It is off, but it will still tell you if you are gaining or losing weight. I used to use until I found ziprealty.


12/23/2005 12:44 PM  
Blogger Van Housing Blogger said...

Hi NetNerdVana (and other anti-Canadians),

Boy, you oughtta actually visit Canada sometime. Your numbers and 'facts' are WAY off. It's not heaven here, but it sure ain't hell.


12/23/2005 6:11 PM  
Blogger 41cadillac said...

What is the take on this!

Home prices zoom up in NovemberBy MATTHEW HAGGMANmhaggman@MiamiHerald.comHome prices jumped sharply in November, appearing to counter worries the South Florida housing market is slowing down.
The median price of an existing single-family home jumped to $391,100 in Broward County and $381,600 in Miami-Dade, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.
In October median homes prices had dropped to $368,900 in Broward and $366,300 in Miami-Dade, a steep decline from previous months. Indeed, prices in Broward had dropped for two consecutive months before the release of new sales figures showing a sharp price hike in November. And the persistent rise of interest rates, and the fact mortgage rates have creeped higher, led some to think the long-predicted slowdown of the red hot housing market was finally here.
Others, however, attributed the October dip to hurricanes -- particularly Hurricane Wilma -- that battered South Florida and closed businesses for days.
The pundits predicting a return to skyrocketing home prices turned out to be right, at least for now.
South Florida home prices also rose sharply compared to the same period a year earlier. In Miami-Dade November prices were up 31 percent compared November 2004. In Broward the price of a single-family home in November was up 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile, the number of homes sold in South Florida remained down in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, a relatively consistent trend throughout the year. November homes sales were down 25 percent in Miami-Dade and 21 percent in Broward, compared to the same period the year before.
The Florida Association of Realtors tracks the median price of existing single-family homes. It does not monitor condominium prices

12/26/2005 2:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did Bush do after September 11? Encourage Americans to spend their money. Did Clinton ever speak out on the crazy investing going on while he was in office? No. Has Bush? No. Has the media questioned them on this? No.

When Americans can't even afford a home except through giving up 40 years of their life to pay for it, things are out of control. Bush and Clinton had the power and opportunities to at the very least, speak out on these issues to calm people down. Neither of them did.

We now have a situation where people can't realistically afford homes. Money that could have been saved to stave off financial disaster has been thrown away to banks and banks have gained even more power over Americans.

The media, banks, and politicians - those with power - aren't going to give it up to the average American.

4/02/2006 8:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're wrong about potential rent price being the best way to value a property.

That's only true if the purpose of buying the property is to rent.

If you plan on living in the home, then the potential rent from the property is meaningless.

5/22/2006 7:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

xAnother end to the bubble might come from two changes in consumer attitude. It isn't scientific but it is possible for markets incuding housing to just plain old get exausted. SUV sales are still off 30-60% even though the oil price spike is a memory. Then there are the other consumers, the buyers of MBSecs. I find it likely that they won't want any more paper at any price. This doubly worries me as we discussed earlier how lots of seemingly ordinary commercial paper is merely laundered MBSecs. wow gold opportunity! A careful analysis of what assets or supports are actually behind the loan market would probably dictate caution and lightening up on anything with exposure.

7/17/2006 11:04 PM  
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4/20/2007 9:39 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Blame Game has been amusing BBC Radio Ulster listeners since its beginnings in October 2005 as host Tim McGarry and his team of outspoken panellists name, shame and, more importantly, blame just about everyone and everything for all the latest news and current affairs headlines.
The Blame Game panel is a mix of established and up-and-coming talent with one thing in common – they are not afraid to speak their minds. costa rica beachfront property One of Northern Ireland's top contemporary comics, Colin Murphy, joins Belfast funny man Jake O'Kane and Dublin newcomer Neil Delamere as regular members of The Blame Game panel.

6/14/2007 3:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A gains several benefits from this. A is excused from what they have done (which means they can do it again). They can play 'Poor me'. A can also claim social capital as B now owes A something in return for B's apparent failure.sportsbook B joins in because they can play 'Poor me' and also claim social capital. They can also play 'Your fault' in return.

7/23/2007 12:59 PM  
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8/01/2007 12:49 PM  
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9/11/2007 5:50 PM  
Blogger Stivel Velasquez said...

Top comics Colin Murphy, Jake O’Kane and Neil Delamere are back with Tim McGarry for a new series of the Blame Game. Each week they'll be joined by a special guest comedian. costa rica jaco atv tours Having already struck up plenty of rapport over the months on BBC Radio Ulster, Colin, Neil,and Jake can ensure plenty of quick-firing banter, insults and, of course, finger-pointing as they battle it out to see who’s the best at apportioning blame – and Colin and Neil set about their own private battle of north versus south.

3/05/2009 9:25 AM  
Blogger Stivel Velasquez said...

BK 'breaks the rules' with new table service MIAMI--Burger King's introduction of soporte tecnico jaco costa rica limited table service at 900 company units could open a floodgate of new products and services for the No. 2 hamburger chain, said marketing executive Ned Owens.

7/22/2009 2:13 PM  
Blogger kimberly sayer said...

Vancouver Housing Blogger just won first place in the Business Blog and Local Blog categories at this year's Canadian Blog Awards, and just recently captured Best Regional Blog in the North American Real Estate Blogging Awards, and as our story about him and the B.C. housing bubble was one of the most popular stories in recent months, we invited him to be the first and were delighted when he accepted.costa rica fishingI blog about the real estate market here in Vancouver, covering all the ups and downs. Lots of "ups" in the last few years, but signs are starting to tilt to the "down" side. To keep abreast of developments, I frequent many housing and real estate related blogs. Some are indispensable, and their absence would leave me feeling empty and under informed.

12/01/2009 6:27 PM  
Blogger kimberly sayer said...

It probably doesn't pay to spend a lot of time discerning responsibility for this mess.costa rica fishingI think it was made possible by the ultra low interest rates which were made possible by the Fed's campaign to smother inflation expectations. Nonetheless.costa rica fishingthis is a serious problem and when the system begins to unravel, the Fed will be there with its checkbook rendering support.costa rica fishingI couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden. At least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst.costa rica fishingWe're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime
It took well over 10 years for the Japanese property bubble to work itself out and forecasting a bottom on this one is almost impossible.costa rica fishingIf we have a sudden, major move in interest rates, it could come in 6 months. Otherwise, it could take years.I couldn't agree more about the bailouts. And this is going to be a very severe problem, because more middle- and low-class people are going to share in the burden.costa rica fishingAt least with stocks mostly the rich took it in the A$$ when that bubble burst. We're talking about living space here, not trust funds. It's going to be ugly with no good solution. People gotta pay for their poor choices sometime.

12/02/2009 6:06 AM  
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3/20/2011 10:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So how is the Nike vapor soccer shoes changed? Visually. the new Vapor football boots have undergone the same new paint work as the Nike Mercurial Superfly boots and now feature the updated asymmetric, fluorescent.

7/24/2011 7:33 AM  

Theirs plenty of blame to go around.

1/09/2013 11:37 PM  

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