-Another F@CKED Borrower- casualty of the housing bubble

Soft Landing??? Not so much...

2009-03-31T09:27:00.001-07:00

So much nonsense going on in this country, where to start?!?!?I will keep it simple for now, and I just want to put this article out there for all the 'experts' and real estate geniuses of a few years back. Seems your 'level out' and 'soft landing' theories didn't pan out so well.Read this: Home Prices in 20 US Cities fell by a record 19%I have been hustling getting a new business up and

R.I.P Personal Responsibility...the guvment is in charge now

2009-02-18T11:42:00.000-08:00

I want to apologize to all the readers that read this blog and decided NOT to purchase a house. Had I know we could have bought houses that we couldn't afford, at rates that we 'knew' were going to adjust higher, AND that the guvment was going to come in and 'save' us, I would have said go ahead and buy. Seriously, why be responsible anymore?Who knew that the nanny state was going to step in and

Like many stupid borrowers, Congress ’signs’ something they never read

2009-02-13T16:09:00.000-08:00

I don't know what to say. I am really and truly at a loss. They said they would give 'the people' 48 hours to see the final bill before they voted on it. The 1100 page bill wasn't even complete barely 12 hours before they voted to approve it. If you think this country is in a mess because a bunch of people didn't read their mortgage documents, wait until you see the fallout from our politicians

My 'Christian Bale' take on things...F@CK!!!

2009-02-04T15:23:00.001-08:00

It's been a while since I last posted. I got it. There have been lots of things on my mind, but I have just been watching and waiting as there is a TON of information to digest. Not to mention I have been working on making a buck so I don't have to be a remora and suck off the guvment which seems to be the 'popular' way to go these days. The straw that broke the camels back has to be this

New ad for the 'big 3'!

2008-12-09T21:49:00.001-08:00

I don't have time for a long post, but I received this 'ad' in my e-mail inbox today, and thought it was entertaining and appropriate to share. This bailout for the 'big 3' is just ridiculous. I know it won't be pretty if they have to close some plants, layoff lots of workers, and do a complete bankruptcy restructuring. BUT I am not convinced it would be catastrophic and throw the economy into

Automaker CEO’s - making as much sense as 125% LTV stated income loans

2008-11-24T00:49:00.000-08:00

I know this is a few days late, but I wanted to get a few quick thoughts out on the automaker testimony. I know it has been a while, but I have been trying to decide where to take this blog next. Even though it began as a blog that talked specifically about mortgages and real estate, I think I am going to start talking about all things business and finance related. I enjoy doing the blog, and

Flashback: A trillion dollar game of JENGA!! (Dec 9th, 2005)

2008-10-07T17:13:00.000-07:00

I am working on some new material, but I have been out of town for the past week for work. That said, I found this post that I wrote on December 9th, 2005. I think it is ’somewhat’ related to what is going on now…but I will let YOU be the judge of that. Here is the link to the ‘original’ time I posted this article. There are some good comments to read through as well. ORIGINAL ‘Jenga’

'Extreme Home Makeover' sees family foreclose on 'free' house

2008-07-29T23:24:00.000-07:00

Getting a 'free' $450,000 construction job, a paid off mortgage, and $250,000 in cash and scholarship money just wasn't enough for one Extreme Home Makeover family who is getting foreclosed on 3 years after receiving their new home. How are they getting foreclosed on you ask? Well apparently getting a new home with no mortgage wasn't enough. After blowing the $250k that was raised to help them,

Soft Landing too much for Indy Mac...and exposes lack of cushion for Freddie's Fannie

2008-07-16T18:43:00.000-07:00

It is no secret that all the real estate experts were correct, we are experiencing our soft landing. This soft landing is merely weeding out the small and weak companies such as Indy Mac, and possibly 2 even smaller companies that only the most astute financial analyst has probably heard of: Fannie and Freddie. I don't have time to rehash all that has happened, but I want to ask some questions,

"There will be a soft landing...if it even goes down"

2008-07-08T00:00:00.000-07:00

Remember when that is all you would hear from Real Estate professionals, mortgage brokers, the MEDIA, etc. Well, I guess it wasn't true. I know I haven't posted here in a while. I have been very busy, and on the road for well over half the time since my last post. I started a business with a classmate of mine from the Naval Academy. We bootstrapped the whole thing and took out zero loans. It has

I guess housing doesn't always go UP!!

2008-03-18T00:37:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know, it has been way too long. But at least we are starting to see some signs that we were in a real estate bubble...right?!?!? I guess when major a major Wall Street investment firm gets bought for $2 a share, something bad happened. But more on that later... I don't even know where to start right now. So many 'experts' said so much 'crap' during those booming 5-8 years (depending on

Uhh-Ohh… Looks like the ‘wealthy’ people got a little carried away too. I told you this was coming!

2008-01-18T01:01:00.001-08:00

Wow, what interesting times we are in right now! American's largest lender Countrywide was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. American Express has to write off a measly 480 million that borrowers didn't/couldn't pay. Citibank and Merrill Lynch are having some pretty large write downs. I mean, what is a few Billion here and there. What I find EXTREMELY interesting is this sentence regarding the

What does ‘08 have in store for our economy and the housing market??

2007-12-26T13:11:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody had a Merry Christmas and is looking forward to fun New Year’s celebrations with friends and family. For those of you that have been reading this blog since 2005, you know that my feelings regarding housing and the economy were not very positive as a whole. You cannot have hundreds of billions of dollars lent out to people that have no ability or inclination to make their ‘

Politicians and Bush say ‘F-you’ to RESPONSIBLE Americans and extend the housing bubble 5 more years (at least)

2007-12-26T13:10:00.000-08:00

I don’t have time for a long post right now, but I will expound on this later. Today marks the day that America goes bankrupt in more things than just it’s finances. We are bankrupt in personal responsibility, integrity, risk assessment, and admitting our mistakes. But look at the bright side…I have found the ‘next BUBBLE’ that exists in pandering, blaming others, and crying to politicians

Paulson’s comments: 3 years late and a few hundred billion dollars short (Not bad for guvment)

2007-11-07T22:52:00.000-08:00

I have been out of town for a rather large portion of the past 6 weeks. I have traveled all over the country and to our neighbors in Canada. I will say that it sucks to go to Canada and see ".90" taped to cash registers so 'we' would know that the US Dollar was only worth 90 cents to them. I don't have time for a long post, and honestly I don't know what else I can say that I haven't already. I

Rate cut WILL NOT save the housing bubble

2007-09-19T02:13:00.000-07:00

I don't have time for a long post right now, but I wanted to get my quick thoughts on the 50 basis point rate cut. Sadly, this will only make things worse in the long run. Unless the median income reaches into the 6-figure range over the next 1-3 quarters, this 50bp rate cut isn't going to save the housing market. It will be nice for some businesses and aspects of Wall Street, but remember that

Government says "NO" to Personal Responsibility - "We will do everything in our power to help those persons who didn't read the fine print"

2007-08-31T10:44:00.000-07:00

I am so MAD you don't even know!!!!!!! I don't even know where to start. I will just make some bullet points and talk about them. I just want to get this post up quickly as I need to go make some money....not for myself, but for our new 'populist' society that is more focused on pandering to the group, than protecting the individual.As you probably know, President Bush spoke this morning on the '

Senator Dodd and Los Angeles Councilman Alarcon - BAILOUT BUDDIES?!?!?

2007-08-22T22:08:00.000-07:00

I told you it was only a matter of time until the politicians started talking BAILOUT for people that bit off more than they could chew. They can't have it both ways (or can they). They can't have 70% 'home ownership' (more like home mortgageship) on one hand, and then use taxpayer money to say that nobody loses a house on the other. The thing is, 70% of the population probably shouldn't be

Waking up to a CNBC nightmare...the Hillary interview dissected

2007-08-09T23:05:00.001-07:00

First off, thanks to those people that keep commenting and e-mailing me their support even in periods of less than frequent postings. I know it seems like a lot is happening, and it is, but now that everybody (including people hand-writing fortune cookies in China...which just happen to be holding a couple hundred billion of our mortgage debt) now knows that there were some 'risk assessment'

Uhhh-Ohhh… The most creditworthy borrowers are defaulting now

2007-08-07T10:17:00.000-07:00

Well, well, well…I hate to say “I told you so”, but imagine my surprise (or lack thereof) one morning last week when I saw the following headlines on the Drudgereport. COUNTRYWIDE: Rise in mortgage defaults among most creditworthy borrowers… California defaults hit 10-year high… Wisconsin foreclosures up 23%… MOODY’S: Housing difficulties cause for concern but no systemic threat… The one

UPDATE...there is MORE bad news coming

2007-06-29T14:24:00.000-07:00

I know I haven't posted much lately...hasn't been much to say. Sure, I could analyze the way things are falling out, but a million other people are doing that. I gave my input as to what I thought was going to happen, and for the most part, things are progressing as I said it would. That said, I have been busy lately starting a new company. When I have been working, I have a little

I know...it has been too long

2007-05-14T21:51:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know....it has been quite a while since the last post.I apologize. I have been out of town quite a bit, and I have been working on starting a new company.That said, this thing is going to take YEARS to pan out. I could write commentary everyday about what is going on, but I have other things occupying my time. Unfortunately, this blog doesn't 'pay the bills' for me. I enjoy doing it,

UPDATE: an FB situation 14 months later

2007-03-27T12:06:00.000-07:00

I know many of you are waiting for the next dose of subprime mortgage madness...don't worry...it is coming. I have been out of town quite a bit lately, and I am going to be gone a bit more. Don't worry though, you aren't going to miss anything as this mess is going to take years to pan out. This post should hold you over for a little while until I can get the next big post up. That said, I

Part I - An INSIDE view (LITERALLY) of the subprime industry - New Century

2007-03-11T22:38:00.000-07:00

Over the next week or so, I am going to show you...literally, why the subprime mortgage industry is imploding. I have known this was coming for a good 2+ years now. Those that have read this blog, and read my posts on Ben's blog, know that I have been saying these things for a long time. NOW, I am going to show you rate sheets and loan programs from various lenders. Some have already gone under,

As bad as it is...the worst is yet to come

2007-03-08T12:57:00.000-08:00

I know, I know....it has been too long since my last post. I have been busy with other business interests yet still keeping an eye on the industry and what is going on. NOTHING that is happening should come as a surprise, especially to regular readers of this blog. I pretty much called how this was going to play out. Lets refresh and see where we are today. We have had rising inventories for

I KNEW it was coming!!

2007-02-15T22:41:00.000-08:00

What?!?!? ...you ask. Maybe some of you have heard them already, but I just heard my first commercial on the radio that goes something like this (not exact by any means…waiting for it to come on again): “Do you have one of those ‘hard to understand’ mortgages that gives you several options to pay at the end of each month? Are your payments increasing and you were not aware of it. These ‘

OC Register…NOW the risks are ‘front page’ news

2007-02-02T00:36:00.000-08:00

If you didn't see this weekends Marketplace section in the OC register, you should check it out. Here is the link to the main article that was on the front page of the Marketplace section: Subprime's grip slips. This is the section that normally had articles about the unstoppable OC real estate market and how you should 'buy today'. I found the picture that was the backdrop for this article

"Don't let this buyers market pass you by!"

2007-01-15T23:47:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody is having a great 2007 so far. Let's see...Donald and Rosie are in a spat, Beckham is coming to Los Angeles, the Chargers blew another playoff game, and YES...real estate is still overpriced in many areas.I know it has been a while since my last post, but I am just here to casually remind you to do your own research and not buy into the latest and greatest marketing hype.I saw

REBA Nominee...and Happy New Year

2006-12-31T16:29:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody had a great Christmas holiday and is looking forward to a Happy New Year and productive 2007!I have done some upgrades to the site software, so that should allow me to spend a lot less time managing the SPAM attacks, and getting new posts up! That said, apparently this blog 'Another FB' along with several of your other favorite 'real estate blogs' have been nominated for a REBA (

Too Little...Too Late

2006-12-12T00:47:00.000-08:00

This is what you call 'TOO LITTLE TOO LATE". While I'm somewhat glad that the media is talking about this now, why weren't they doing this 2 years ago?? Come on, it doesn't take an MBA (it only takes a clear head and a calculator) to figure out that this was a recipe for disaster, not success.What I am talking about, is this article from the LA Times titled: A Loan That'll Get Ugly Fast. I

Another one bites the dust - OwnIt Mortgage

2006-12-07T00:17:00.000-08:00

I was out of town on the east coast for a little while catching up with friends, and going to the Army/Navy game in Philadelphia. Navy made it a 4 year sweep of both Army and Air Force...too bad they didn't play that well when I was there. Anyway, I have quite a bit on my plate right now, but lets look at a few things.First off, OwnIt Mortgage went down faster than a Pamela Anderson marriage.

More NONSENSE from the CAR (Ca. Assoc Realtors)

2006-11-28T00:28:00.000-08:00

Look at this latest report from the California Association of Realtors (CAR): 3Q 2006 First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (HAI).This is the part I find interesting...and for several reasons to be discussed below:----------------The minimum household income first-time buyers needed to purchase a home at $478,710 in California in the third quarter of 2006 was $98,890, based on an

Want to get an accurate value on your house? How to find an HONEST appraiser.

2006-11-17T10:47:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, we got an inside look at the appraisal side of the business courtesy of a long time appraiser in the Orange County area better know to us as OC Appraiser. That post sparked some good comments and e-mails. One of the most common questions was "how can I find a good appraiser?" that will give me an honest representation of the value of my home at any given time.There was also quite a

Appraisals...an inside look at 'The OC'

2006-11-15T15:44:00.000-08:00

There is a shift happening in this country in the ways that people get information. No longer are people held 'captive' by the big 3 network news shows, and a handful of national newspapers. The TV news ratings are slowly dropping, along with newspaper circulation of the 'big name' newspapers. This is due to the internet, and the fact that people can get information from other places. Sure,

REALITY CHECK!!!

2006-11-12T22:57:00.000-08:00

I know, it has been a month or so since my last post. With the amount of 'housing bubble' news that is hitting all aspects of the media, I started to figure that the blogs weren't needed as much as they were when 'nobody' was talking about a housing bubble. Well, I ended up having a good conversation with one of my long time readers. They said that a new post was needed from me now, more than

Easy money isn't so easy

2006-10-03T00:48:00.000-07:00

I am working on a few posts, but I wanted to get this article up for people to see. Below is an article titled: Nothing Quick About Getting Rich With Real Estate. The author (MP Dunleavey) looks at the Real Estate seminars and for the "1000 new millionaires" that 'were' created. Some really good insight in this column.---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gary Watts...'in the bag'

2006-09-27T00:13:00.000-07:00

It looks like Gary 'in the bag' Watts is at it again with another real estate outlook. It is for 2006/2007, but at this time, there are NO predictions for 2007. Lets get down to business and look at some of the highlights of this latest report...Here is Gary's predictions for how 2006 will end:-------How Will This Year End?1. As mortgage rates continue to decline, buyers will get off the

FOLLOW UP - Casey Serin

2006-09-25T21:14:00.000-07:00

Well, it looks like Casey Serin shut down his website. Too bad that Google keeps a cache of sites. I will show you the last things he had on his site BEFORE he pulled the plug. I don't have time at the moment for a long post, but there is a LOT of good info in the comments on the previous post. That said, here is what Casey's website showed after he took it down...but before it was completely

CASE STUDY: 24yr old lied to get 2.2 million in loans

2006-09-22T00:53:00.000-07:00

I have been saying for a long time that anybody can get a loan. I have told you that there is a lot of crap going on in the mortgage industry. I saw the credit reports, the 1003's, the income figures, etc. and was amazed at the loans people were able to get. The thing is, I was looking at numbers on paper...I did not deal with the actual borrowers, only brokers. I 'knew' there were

"Don't blame exotic loans for the housing malaise"

2006-09-19T23:52:00.000-07:00

That was the headline in the OC Register this weekend in the 'Marketplace' section. The smaller print after the big headline is "Stats suggest borrowers are handling supposedly riskier mortgages – so far." The BIG emphasis should be on those last 2 words...SO FAR. Here is the link to the online version: OC Register article - "Don't blame exotic loans for the housing malaise" I will

Do you own your house? ...or does your house OWN you??

2006-09-12T22:47:00.000-07:00

NOTE: This book title deals with allergies in the home. I think another book could be written with the same name...but along the lines of my post below.I was restocking one of my accounts in the Palm Springs/Palm Desert area when one of the techs needed me to move out of the way so they could reach some instrument. I said "how are you doing?" They replied "I'm alive." I said "That is a good

Read the SMALL print!

2006-09-08T00:08:00.000-07:00

I just thought I had to share with everybody what I pulled out of my mailbox this week. I got a 'nice' 6 x 11 inch card in the mail that says across the top: "RENTERS!" then the next line says "Kiss You Landlord Goodbye!". Maybe you didn't catch that, but yes, it said 'you' and not 'your'. So that was my first clue that attention to detail is NOT a strong suit of this 'luxury' condo

Fundamentals??? An 'old' perspective

2006-08-08T23:13:00.000-07:00

I have been meaning to do a post about this for a while. I get these "Thought for the day" from the Napoleon Hill foundation. I'm sure many of you are familiar with Napoleon Hill, but for those of you who aren't, he was the author of 'Think and Grow Rich'. Napoleon Hill earned the opportunity to work with some of the best and brightest in the world of business. He was inspired by Andrew Carnegie,

The 'old way' vs. the 'new way'

2006-08-02T23:49:00.000-07:00

I know, I know, it has been too long. But look at it this way, nothing 'major' has happened yet. Most of you that have read this blog for a while know what is coming. Sure, it is 'nice' or at least 'validating' for people on the 'bubble side' of things see inventories rising, appreciation slow or even go negative, and the "oh my gosh, the market turned so fast, I wasn't able to flip for huge

YAWN...

2006-05-25T00:18:00.000-07:00

I know, I know....it is taking tooooooo long between posts. I wish I had the time to post more often, but those of you that know what I am doing now, know that I have a lot going on, and that it pays a 'bit more' than blogging. I do have a few things to say and some quick advice. So let's get started!I know that many of you are excited because you are starting to see more and more articles

Car wrecks and the housing bubble?!?!?!?

2006-04-19T23:20:00.000-07:00

I know, I know...people want me to post more often. Well, I hope to post more frequently when I stop 'drinking from a fire hose' with my new job. That said, things are going well with the new job...and things are starting to fall 'in line' with what I thought would happen with this bubble. I still feel like I am beating a dead horse. This bubble should NOT be a surprise to anybody.Look at it this

Money Magazine article, mortgage update and more

2006-03-30T21:52:00.000-08:00

I know it has been a little while since I last posted, but I have been pretty busy with my 'plan B' job. Things are going GREAT with my new line of work, and I can honestly say it is refreshing to be out of the mortgage industry as my primary source of income. I have several great friends that are still 'in the trenches' and I still keep abreast of what is going on in the mortgage/real estate

I'm back! ...option ARMs , growing inventory, slower business, and more

2006-03-12T23:30:00.000-08:00

Hello everybody! Many of you know my feelings on where I think things are headed as well that I have been working on my 'plan B'. That said, my 'plan B' has worked out better than expected. I found an excellent opportunity in another industry. I will still be in sales in SoCal, just not in the mortgage industry. I will still be keeping my finger on the 'pulse' of

The 40-yr mortgage

2006-03-12T23:28:00.000-08:00

Quick update: I am not going to be available that much this week via computer. I was presented with a very good opportunity that I decided to take advantage of. That said, no time for a 'new' post. But here is a repost of an older topic that I think more people need to look at again. I keep getting e-mails about 40yr and longer term mortgages. Here is the math behind it. Those of you that have

The times are changing....

2006-03-03T00:12:00.000-08:00

Whoooopsieee! Looks like the media is starting to catch a 'whiff' of this bubble leaking some air. The realtors for the most part are in denial. It is as if they are walking downwind in a cow pasture, but they won't admit something 'stinks' until they step in it! Right now, all the realtors are trying to rationalize that things don't smell at all, and if you put on enough cologne, things smell

"The market has turned"

2006-02-28T00:34:00.000-08:00

NOT going to do it!As many of you know, I have mentioned several times that things have gotten quite a bit slower. I think this story pretty much sums it up, especially this part:“How would you characterize the housing market right now? MOZILO: The market has turned. The psychology of the buyers for single-family homes has clearly changed. We are seeing it from the flow of loan applications. If

What else can you do?

2006-02-23T22:30:00.000-08:00

Whew…I’m tired! The horse is down, but no matter how much we beat it with data, facts, math, inventories, etc. ‘the horse’ will just not believe it one bit that real estate can go down. I have covered most of the popular mortgages….from 2/28, 3/27, 5/25, 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 ARMs, interest only ARMs, option ARMs, fixed rate loans, even 40 year mortgages on up to

Don't worry about the 50 year mortgage...it isn't going to save things

2006-02-22T20:39:00.000-08:00

I have received several e-mails from readers that are feeling like this thing is never going to end because there is talk of a 50 year mortgage coming out. My thought is not to worry. It will only delay the inevitable slightly, if at all. Here is an article about the possibility of a 50 year mortgage.Let's look at a few choice comments from the article:The

It's the inventory STUPID!

2006-02-22T01:40:00.000-08:00

San Diego inventory passed 17,000 on Feb 21st, and is officially at 17,027 per ziprealty.com...but don't be surprised if it is higher when you check it. On Jan 23rd, the inventory was 15,568. That is a 9.38% increase in the last 30 days. Don't wait for the Union Tribune to tell you that though. Take the initiative to check it out yourself, or use the

Housing and mortgage...random thoughts

2006-02-21T00:22:00.000-08:00

I have been out of town and pretty busy the past few days...so I don't have time to hammer out one of my long posts, so here are some random thoughts and impressions on the housing bubble, real estate, mortgages...among other things.- At 11:31 PM on Monday night, there are: There are 16,981 active homes in San Diego, CA. per ziprealty. At what time

More comments on the mortgage and adjusting ARM data

2006-02-17T00:37:00.000-08:00

Here we go again. Some more analysis of that great 33 page data set that I started talking about yesterday titled “Mortgage Payment Reset - The Rumor and the Reality“. Let's get right to it...after all it is a Friday!The author starts off trying to minimize the affect of ARMs adjusting and mortgage payments increasing. There are a few things I want to point out

The mortgage data we have all been waiting for

2006-02-15T23:50:00.000-08:00

I had the following report sent to me by a reader, and it has also been posted in the forums. It is a report from First American Corporation and it is titled "Mortgage Payment Reset - The Rumor and the Reality", by Christopher L. Cagan PhD. and Director of Research and AnalyticsThere is a ton of good information and graphs in the report. It is 33 pages long, so please understand that it is

My REBUTTAL to "the Automatic Millionaire"

2006-02-14T18:12:00.000-08:00

I have had the following article e-mailed to me no less than 10 times already today. The article in question made the front page of Yahoo Finance. Here is the article, written by David Bach, titled "Why Homeowners Get Rich and Renters Stay Poor".Now that you have read the article and seen one side of the story, it is time for me to get to work and pick off the main points in this article one by

San Diego Mortgage and RE info

2006-02-13T23:31:00.000-08:00

I want to take a moment and talk about some really good info that I think the San Diego market should be interested in. I'm sure many of you have seen the site that Rich Toscano has put together: www.piggington.com. Not only does Rich write write regular articles for the Voice of San Diego, but he has some excellent content on his website that

BIG mortgages...little documentation

2006-02-12T23:42:00.000-08:00

I always like it when people not in the mortgage industry get a 'whiff' of what is going on. See this post below from a reader.I sold a condo and bought a house in June 2005. I sold in Arlington and bought out in the burbs of MD. When I went to buy the house we brought a lot of what I call "fake money" to the table as a downpayment. Ended up with over 50% downpayment. (I expect to lose most of

The Payment Paradigm

2006-02-09T23:44:00.000-08:00

"Get a LOW mortgage payment!""Payments YOU can afford!""OWN a condo! Payments under $1995!"I'm sure that many of you have seen similar signs or advertisements out there. It's all about the payment baby!! It seems the housing industry has taken a page from the car finance industry. "Sell the payment, not the price!".I know I have touched on this issue before, but this article by Rich Toscano of

Stated Income Loans....my favorite

2006-02-08T23:03:00.000-08:00

I want to take a look at 2 separate articles and show you (again) why I'm not a big fan of the way stated income loans have been used. Let's take a look at this 'entertaining' article about rock musicians buying homes. It seems that one 'rocker' who hasn't made it yet, is now rockin' the loan business! The niche is doing seminars and getting loans for other aspiring rock musicians.I really like

Renting has it’s downside…Market info…and more!

2006-02-07T23:05:00.000-08:00

This week we are looking at the buy vs. rent debate from different angles. We have looked at the ownership costs versus the rental costs if you were to make the decision TODAY. I think it makes renting look like a good deal at this time, in your high priced 'bubble' areas.But what are the downsides to renting? I know that many people have experienced bad landlords. Some of these people never made

A time to buy, a time to rent...but don't take my word for it

2006-02-07T09:52:00.000-08:00

As you know, I'm taking some time this week to discuss the 'buy vs. rent' debate that seems to have taken on a more argumentative tone lately. It hasn't happened much on this blog, but I know that many people are getting anxious and impatient as this 'froth' keeps going...like tapping a keg that just rolled down the stairs. I not here to tell you what to do, I'm just here to help give you

"To buy or not to buy...that is the question"

2006-02-06T13:27:00.000-08:00

For the sake of simplicity, I am going to apply my rationale to the California housing market. I know that property values have gone up many places, but I think California as a whole probably has the worst affordability problem. California is where I live, it is where I work in the mortgage business, and you can apply the fundamentals that I will talk about to any area of the country. Now let's

Have a great weekend!

2006-02-03T15:02:00.000-08:00

Don't forget that you now have 2 ways to get to the site...no more having to worry about firewalls from work, or saying the 'F-word':www.housingbubblecasualty.comwww.anotherf@ckedborrower.comDon't forgot to check out the FORUMS...lots of good activity going on over there already.Have a great weekend....enjoy the Superbowl...and the advertisements. Keep the comments coming!SoCalMtgGuy

"uh, I got a big mortgage..."

2006-02-03T00:07:00.000-08:00

I was watching the 11 o'clock news tonight and there it was...the big 'news story' that people aren't saving any money. I know that isn't news to anybody here, but I'll say it again....the media is a lagging indicator!Anyway, they have Mr. Reporter go out on the street and ask people is they save money."Excuse me sir, do you save money every month?" ...no -next person-"I was wondering if you

NEW SITE! I need your comments and feedback

2006-02-02T14:52:00.000-08:00

Alright....I need some feedback here.I'm been working on a new site that I will be hosting myself, and that has some more capabilities. What I'm probably going to do is continue to post my articles to both sites for a while, and see how that goes. I know that people don't like change, but I have had a few people check it out already, and they like the other site.I would like your comments and

Option-ARMs...FINALLY making the news!

2006-02-01T23:06:00.000-08:00

The image to the left is from this WSG Online article about my favorite 'bubble' loan...the option ARM mortgage. This is the loan with 4 payment options and that all enticing introductory 1% (or similar) payment. You can see my post here for more info about the loan.Like every tool, this loan has it's place for informed borrowers, or sophisticated borrowers that are trying to manage their cash

Easy money never lasts forever!

2006-01-31T22:46:00.000-08:00

There has been a lot of talk here and on the other blogs about the consumer spending that has been financed through the equity extracted from real estate. But what about the people that make the industry possible? What kind of money have many of these people been making, and what is in store for them?To answer that question, let's look at the growth in the mortgage industry. Take a look at this

Market update...what I'm seeing...and the NEW Ziprealty.com

2006-01-30T22:07:00.000-08:00

For those of you having trouble accessing this site from work, I bought another domain name and pointed it to the blog. Use: www.housingbubblecasualty.com and that should get you here...but who knows, maybe the firewalls don't like 'debt' either?!?!?Let's get right down to business...Last Monday (Jan 23rd), there were 15,568 properties on the market in San Diego per Ziprealty.com. Today (Jan 30)

Dr. 90210....homeowners always happier...and a realtor association withholding data??

2006-01-29T15:05:00.000-08:00

One evening last week I was doing what most guys do real well...high speed channel surfing. I was flying though "those" channels that you usually don't watch too much in the first place...yeah, you know the channels I'm talking about...everybody has them. Anyway, I was flying through and I heard the word 'mortgage'. So, with my amazingly adept hand/eye, tv/remote coordination, I stopped on what

Help a Chicago reader...and an insightful e-mail

2006-01-27T01:11:00.000-08:00

This is one of the many e-mails I have received the past few days. I can help with the financial part of things, but I need some people to chime in that have some knowledge of the Chicago market.Let's take a look at our reader, and see what we can come up with:-----------------------------------------SoCalMtgGuy,It seems that I'm trying to become a f'd borrower. Just today I tried to see if

I want to hear your FB stories

2006-01-25T21:38:00.000-08:00

After the response to the FB post from earlier this week, I don't have any FB stories that can compare...emphasis on the 'story' part of it. I have the data but I don't have the story which gives it that extra 'oomph' so that you, the reader, can relate. It's just data and numbers...and that isn't interesting unless there is something you can relate to. How many of you can relate to a 576 FICO

A quick market update, a yahoo poll, and comments

2006-01-24T22:19:00.000-08:00

Whew! ...is it the weekend yet?!?!?I know we have a few more days, but wouldn't it be nice to trade places with this dog for a while?!?!?Anyway...let's get down to business. I'm sure many of you are wondering what I'm seeing in the market right now. I'm seeing a bump in activity, but much of that activity is not translating into loans. There seems to be more activity on the A-paper side of the

A misleading statistic...and a firewall 'work'around

2006-01-23T22:53:00.000-08:00

I want to take this post to show why an important stat is misleading and show people another way to get to this site if they are having trouble with firewalls at work. Not that anybody would ever surf the net from work or anything?!?!?I like the pic on the side...it reminds me of how many people got through economics. Maybe they shouldn't have slept through all that boring financial stuff.

Confession from a reader: "I was in denial...I may be an FB myself"

2006-01-22T23:15:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody had a good weekend! I want to share some e-mails that a reader and I have bounced back and forth. I have removed all personal and identifying information. I want to thank this person for their honesty and candor. I think this person has a very good chance at avoiding FB'dom because they did not go into denial, and are instead looking for a solution relatively early in the game.

FB Friday

2006-01-19T23:38:00.000-08:00

Another week has gone by and it is time to look at some possible FB's. It has been a busy week and I'm ready for the weekend...how about you!?!??Let's get moving...How about the borrower I looked at this week that had 11 mortgages on his credit report. The broker told me it really wasn't that bad because they had just sold 3 of the places, and were buying one new one, so there would only be 9

Maxxxed out!!! ...and looking for a 'soft landing'

2006-01-18T21:28:00.000-08:00

See this picture to the left. That person is doing what is called 'maxing out' on a lift, in this case the bench press. After warming up, the lifter attempts to do one rep at the max weight possible. Let's compare this lifter to some of the borrowers that maxed themselves out to buy a home, and/or live a lifestyle.This lifter is at a point where he cannot handle anymore weight. Many borrowers are

Reader shares an FB story, and in IMPORTANT question!!

2006-01-17T23:27:00.000-08:00

I have steadily been receiving more and more e-mails from readers...keep them coming! I have had several readers relay FB stories to me, and many others have offered words of encouragement or other beneficial information. I'll start with a potential FB story and finish up with an interesting question that I think will spark some good commentary. That said...let's get moving!This particular story

San Diego 10pm News..."now is the time to buy" condos!

2006-01-16T22:19:00.000-08:00

I was in the middle of writing my post for Tuesday when I heard a story come across the 10 o'clock news about "San Diego condo's...a time to buy?" Needless to say, I stopped what I was doing, and watched the entire piece. When it was over, I saved the post I was working on for another day, and decided to write this one.Before I get into the news piece, I feel that I must offer you a very

When should I buy a house? 6 things to guide you

2006-01-14T13:29:00.000-08:00

WHEN SHOULD I BUY A PLACE?!?!?That question is popping up more and more frequently in my inbox as it is one of the top questions on many people's minds. I am not an expert in every local market, and I certainly can't know everything with regards to each person's individual financial situation. Yes, there are tons of good deals and special situations out there. What I am going to do is give some

Realtor: "you will make a minimum of 10% every year you live in the house"

2006-01-12T22:30:00.000-08:00

I will never forgot when I passed my Series 7 exam with a score of 87 several years ago. For those of you that don't know, that is the 'stockbroker' exam to be an NASD securities dealer. It is a 6 hour test where only 65% of people get the passing score of 70% or higher. Why am I talking about that test you ask?!?!? Simple, the NASD (National Association of Securities Dealers) is adamant that

Escrow company says 71% of purchase loans used 100% financing in 2005

2006-01-11T21:48:00.000-08:00

First off, I want to thank:Legacy Escrow Service, Inc in Washington State for sharing some of their 2005 year end statistics with me. Due to the competitive nature of the business, they asked that I not use the exact amount of purchase loans that they closed, but it is safe to say it was SEVERAL hundred purchase loans. Out of these purchase loans, 71% used 100% financing to get into the home.

FB's and comments/feedback

2006-01-10T23:51:00.000-08:00

I got busy working on a few things tonight, so I don't have the time to hammer out a long post. Let me hear it......awwwwwh!!!! Yeah, like most of you read the long posts anyways!!! ANYWAY...but since I know everybody loves a good FB story, I have a few quickies to share.I get a call on this one secnario. 2 borrowers. Primary borrower has credit in the mid 600's and the co-bwr has credit in

Serial refinancing or surreal financing

2006-01-09T21:31:00.000-08:00

REFINANCING TO THE RESCUE!!!! First off, I want to say thanks to 'Harm' for suggesting the title for today's post. There was an interesting discussion going on at Ben's blog about this article that made the 'bold' statement that Interest Only Loans Prove Short Term Fix. The article investigates situations where borrowers refinance one interest-only (I/O) loan for another when the interest only

"I was cheated"

2006-01-08T21:08:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody had a great weekend. Alright, let's get down to business. I don't usually repost articles because I know that many of you have made the rounds on the "bubble blog circuit" and seen them elsewhere. There are some articles though that deserve to be posted, and expounded upon. Take this article titled: A Home Boom Busts - Shanghai's hot housing market has fizzled after a run-up fed

It's FB Friday

2006-01-05T17:47:00.000-08:00

I know, I know, it's been a while since we got to look at some of the future Donald Trump's that are planning on making an easy fortune in the real estate market. So far in 2006 I have yet to look at a full doc loan. Not that I'm looking at a ton of loans right now anyway, but come on already. Actually, there was one loan that the broker (newbie) thought could go full doc. The problem came when I

My RANT: a population bankrupt in MATH

2006-01-03T23:06:00.000-08:00

....is going to happen with rates, housing prices, all this debt....and math scores?!?!?I'd say rates need to continue to rise, housing prices need to align with the fundamentals, and MBS investors need to "take their medicine" for lending money to risky borrowers with little or no risk premium. I'm sure that all those people who tried their darndest to get loans will be the first ones to grab

Gotta love that other FB

2006-01-02T23:37:00.000-08:00

I know, I know...I'm supposed to have stories of the other FB's we like to "watch" here on this website. I'm sure many of you know that there isn't much new loan activity going on around the Christmas and New Years holiday.Since there isn't much loan stuff going on during the holidays...I've been enjoying myself and soaking up all the college FB bowl games I can!! I have stayed away from my

Have a Safe, Happy, and Prosperous New Year!!

2005-12-29T12:21:00.000-08:00

Have a Safe, Happy, and Prosperous New Year!I'll be back with more posts in 2006!I added a section of "Popular Posts" below the links because I know that going through the archives is a pain on blogs. Let me know if there are other posts you would like to see there.Support your favoite blogs with comments / e-mails / use their e-tailers (amazon/walmart/etc.)SoCalMtgGuy

MTV Cribs, Bling, and...the housing bubble?!?!?

2005-12-29T10:42:00.000-08:00

GOT BLING???I got an e-mail from a reader today that posed the following question to me: Do you think there is a direct correlation between MTV Cribs and the housing bubble?I have thought about the very same thing on many occasions...how the MTV Cribs, pimp-my-ride, bling-bling attitude IS having an affect on society. I was talking with a title rep friend today, and they mentioned the "bling

FB's with sub-500 fico scores

2005-12-28T22:33:00.000-08:00

I know everybody loves the FB stories...but it IS the holidays, and the RE/mortgage industry is traditionally slower during this time of the year. Not to mention that mortgage applications are at a more than a 3 year low right now per this article from Bloomberg. I think because things are slow, that brokers are going back through their old files they couldn't place months ago, and trying again.

I'm BACK! "celebrity" FB story, random thoughts, and more...

2005-12-27T22:34:00.000-08:00

I hope everybody had a nice long holiday weekend and that not too many of you are suffereing a holiday hangover! I had a great Christmas myself, and I enjoyed the time off. Based on many of the comments and e-mails I received, it seems that you missed not having any new content or posts. Well, I'm back, and hopefully I will be able to keep the high quality content going! It isn't easy writing

MerryChristmas!!!

2005-12-23T00:30:00.000-08:00

I want to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and say 'thank you' for reading my blog! Special thanks to those who have sent e-mails, left comments, and supported the e-tailers on my blog.I will be enjoying the time off, and not spending much time on the computer. I suggest you do the same! ;)If you get bored, you can read some of the older posts in my archives, and check out the links I have

The blame game...comments and ramblings

2005-12-21T14:26:00.000-08:00

I have recieved several e-mails and comments where people wanted to know my opinion on a few things. Instead of replying to these various comments individually, I will just make a post and give my opinion on various items. Well, here goes...I don't know how the new BK rules are going to pan out. I don't know if the lawyers are going to find loopholes and exploit the system or not. I don't know if

OCC Mortgage Guidance

2005-12-20T21:24:00.000-08:00

Allrighty....I have received several e-mails and comments from readers requesting my take on the recommendations made by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC). Here is the link to the FDIC press release if you haven't already read it yet: http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2005/pr12805a.htmlBefore I get ahead of myself, let me say that I am by no means an expert on the

Winding down into the holidays...

2005-12-19T23:30:00.000-08:00

Things are slowing down as we head into the Christmas and New Years Holidays. Most of my brokers are closing out their pipelines and not doing much (if any) origination (getting new loans). I looked at 3 stated deals today. Nothing terrible, but nothing to get excited about either. One of them was an 80/20 condo purchase. I guess the bwr is seeing things "slow" a little bit and wants to jump on

FB's, Feedback, and support your favorite blogs

2005-12-16T11:19:00.000-08:00

Ok, it's that time again. I have a few more stories of potential FB's. Some are better than others. On some scenarios I know that I cannot do anything for the borrower after two or three questions. On many others I'm left standing there scratching my head going, there is no way to help these people. Take this one for example:Bwr has a FICO score in the 530's, 2x60 mortgage lates and several 30

PIMCO says...82% of CA purchase loans are interest only or Option-ARM

2005-12-16T09:46:00.000-08:00

STAT OF THE WEEK:The data below is from Scott Simon of PIMCO: The really negative sign for us is the fact that, last year, 82 percent of the purchase loans in the state of California -- Orange County being representative -- were either interest-only or negatively amortizing loans. We view that not as an economic choice people were making, just simply an I-can’t-afford-the-house choice.Need I say